By the numbers: Charlotte Hornets have won two big games by using this lineup tweak
The Charlotte Hornets are figuring out how to play faster and smaller, and they pass the ball effectively.
But missed free throws have already cost them one game — and figure to cost them more.
Four games into a 72-game season, the Hornets are 2-2 with surprising victories over the Brooklyn Nets and Dallas Mavericks. They are seemingly on an upswing after looking awful in the first half of the season opener in Cleveland.
They were off Thursday in the midst of a brutally busy stretch in the schedule: Ten games in 16 nights, including a home game Friday against the Memphis Grizzlies.
While the sample size is small so far, five things the numbers suggest:
Small-ball works so far
Coach James Borrego said in the preseason to expect a lot of small-ball lineups, which means P.J. Washington at center and Miles Bridges at power forward. The need to play that way expanded when center Cody Zeller fractured his hand, which will keep him out at least a month.
So far, so good: The NBA’s statistics database allows you to segment out minutes when specific groups play together. In the 39 minutes Washington and Bridges have played together, the Hornets outscored their opponents at a rate of 22.3 points per 100 possessions.
Bridges’ role has shifted from starting small forward to power forward on the second unit. He’s thriving there; he had a career-high 16 rebounds against the Mavs on Wednesday, and is shooting 50% from 3-point range. Washington had a slow start — Borrego said he wasn’t in game shape to start the season — but had a big game against the Nets.
“The preseason didn’t give us a great sample of what it could look like,” Borrego said. “P.J. and Miles can rebound, we’re versatile, and we’ve still got length out there (with two 6-foot-7 players, Gordon Hayward and LaMelo Ball, on the perimeter). There’s versatility defensively with the switching lineups.”
Pace up, but not precisely the point
The Hornets were last in the NBA in possessions per game last season, at 99.8 per game. That is up to 106.2 per game, which is the middle of the league.
Borrego says pace, by itself, isn’t so important, but rather that it represents a more aggressive approach. As Borrego said, he wants his offense resembling an NFL two-minute drill, constantly putting pressure on defenses. Usually, three or four players in any given lineup are empowered to start the offense straight off a rebound.
The better indicator of a change is fast-break points; the Hornets lead the NBA at 20.8 per game, up dramatically from 11.6 last season. It obviously improves the situation that Ball is both a strong rebounder for a guard and a fine look-ahead passer.
“I’m less concerned with the pace number, and more about the thrust we have offensively,” Borrego said. “The constant pressure, make or miss.”
Passes accomplish more
The Hornets were willing passers last season. But they didn’t have enough finishers for that approach to count for much.
The Hornets lead the NBA in assists per game at 30.2. That’s an assist better than second-place Cleveland and six assists better than last season. They are slightly on the high side in turnovers at 16.8 per game, but that’s a big improvement from the preseason, when they were frequently topping 20.
Borrego says he can live with some turnovers that result from daring passes that might lead to dunks. It’s the careless ones at mid-court that had to be reduced.
Spread the usage
Borrego said in the preseason that adding Hayward and Ball would cut back the heavy offensive reliance on guards Devonte Graham and Terry Rozier from last season.
Usage is the percentage of plays during each player’s floor time when he is directly involved. While Graham’s is significantly lower so far (20.1 vs. 26.6 last season), Rozier’s is up (27.3 vs 24.2).
The high-usage Hornets so far: Rozier 27.3, Hayward 25.4, Ball 23.6, Washington 23 and Graham 20.1.
Free-throw trouble
The Hornets missed 12-of-32 foul shots versus the Oklahoma City Thunder, and lost at home by two. They are last in the NBA currently in free-throw percentage at 64.7. That’s more than a full percentage point worse than No. 29 New Orleans.
Right now, the big men are the primary problem at the foul line: Bismack Biyombo and Washington are a combined 16-of-32 on free throws, including Washington’s two misses in the last minute of the two-point victory over the Nets.
