NASCAR paths to victory: Why each top driver will (or won’t) win championship at Phoenix

The NASCAR championship race is wide open on paper as Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin each have relevant strengths and weaknesses that may surface Sunday in the championship Cup race at Phoenix (3 p.m., NBC).

Here is analytics-driven rationale as to why each of the four championship-eligible drivers has a shot — or not — at claiming NASCAR’s crown:

Chase Elliott

Why he’ll win: Raw speed

Dating back to 2005, the fastest car in any given NASCAR race won about 40% of the time. This season across the 11 races on 750-horsepower tracks, the win rate for fastest cars stands at 54.5%. Elliott’s No. 9 from Hendrick Motorsports ranks as the fastest car in the series this season, both overall and on 750-hp tracks specifically.

As this spring’s race in Phoenix proved, the reduction in spoiler size from eight inches to 2.75 inches unlocked passing ability, improving the race winner’s expected adjusted pass efficiency — the percentage of on-track encounters resulting in a completed pass — by 5.5 points. With his speed, even if Elliott finds himself buried in traffic at some point in the race, he should be able to navigate back to the front.

Why he won’t: An advantage neutralized

Elliott is two for two when given the fastest car on a 750-hp track this season, winning races on the Daytona road course and in Martinsville, but those two tracks share a common denominator. They have tight corners requiring frequent, delicate brake use and a perfectly timed return to the throttle — something that won’t be equally relevant in Sunday’s race.

The 1-mile Phoenix Raceway track doesn’t see the kind of brake abuse that’s rampant at venues with tighter corners, meaning Elliott’s key advantage will be neutralized. This levels the playing field for the other three drivers, all of whom secured victories on 750-hp tracks more in line with Phoenix this season.

RESULTS: NASCAR Xfinity championship at Phoenix

RESULTS: NASCAR Truck Series championship at Phoenix

Brad Keselowski

Why he’ll win: An undefeated chassis

Following his win on Richmond’s 0.75-mile track, Keselowski made sure the victory celebration did no damage to his car.

“I wanted to do a really cool burnout with it, but I want this car for Phoenix,” he said. “It’s two for two.”

That very chassis, the result of Team Penske’s pivot toward specializing for 750-hp tracks last offseason, also won at the 1-mile oval in New Hampshire. It was confirmed this week by crew chief Jeremy Bullins as the car Keselowski will have Sunday. It ranked as either the fastest or second-fastest car in the two races it entered and led 338 miles out of a possible 618.

If the car is clearly dominant early in the race, consider it a sign Keselowski could be on the cusp of a memorable performance.

Why he won’t: He lacks a closing kick

Of the four championship-eligible teams, Keselowski’s is the only one whose cars don’t get faster as races progress.

His average fourth-quarter speed ranking (8.89) falls below his average ranking for the whole of each race (8.44), whereas Logano, Elliott and Hamlin respectively gain 2.47, 2.39 and 1.71 ranking positions on average.

This dynamic is bad for his passing output, which has been largely tied to the hip with his speed on 750-hp tracks. Keselowski’s expected adjusted pass differential across oval races with this rules package is plus-65; his actual pass differential is plus-64, displaying little ability to score passes beyond the car’s capability. To wit, Hamlin and Elliott have earned surplus positional gains of plus-31 and plus-21.

If Keselowski is on even footing or worse in regards to speed at any point in the race, he’ll struggle to gain track position.

Joey Logano

Why he’ll win: Restarts

Logano plays offense when he’s on offense but defends position when he’s on defense. That sounds elementary, but it’s a concept lost on some drivers, confused and panicking on double-file restarts.

He has the ability to score more positions than expected when restarting from the preferred groove, as demonstrated in his spring win in Phoenix, earning 12 spots on six such attempts. He also takes decisive action in maintaining position or mitigating loss when restarting from the non-preferred groove, a lane that typically provides its occupants a net loss. There are just three drivers averaging a loss of less than one position when restarting from inside the non-preferred groove’s first seven spots; he’s one of them, and the other two — Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch — aren’t championship-eligible.

Why he won’t: A lack of restarts

His speed is exemplary on the 750-hp tracks, trailing only that of Elliott, and his restarting prowess will keep him in the hunt on short runs, but long runs may be his undoing.

Outside of the restart window, he’s a speed-dependent passer for the whole of the season — with an adjusted pass differential three positions worse than his expectation — on 750-hp tracks. He turned in a surplus 56-position gain in Phoenix this spring, but that efficient maneuvering came in a race heavy on short runs thanks to 12 cautions flags for 3.2 restarts per 100 miles, a high volume relative to most races. It’s not a given we’ll see cautions fall at a similar clip to keep the field in close proximity.

Denny Hamlin

Why he’ll win: He’s at his peak

NASCAR drivers typically reach their statistical peak at age 39, Hamlin’s current age.

He’s been with Joe Gibbs Racing since 2005 and his 9.5-place average finish across his last 71 starts is the best he’s ever produced. Given his complete statistical profile, Sunday’s race may represent his most realistic chance of winning the championship in his 16 years at the Cup Series level.

The lone jack of all trades among the four title contenders, Hamlin ranks in the top five among all drivers for position retention on restarts, is a plus passer overall and on 750-hp tracks specifically and has a heavy-horsepower driving style — easy corner entry with minimal braking to maximize his corner exit — which suits him well in Phoenix, where he won a playoff race last year.

Why he won’t: His seven wins belie his lack of dominance

Of Hamlin’s seven wins this season, just one came on a 750-hp track and none were overwhelmingly dominant. Interestingly enough, his team seems to thrive for two-thirds of each race but lacks the knack for flag-to-flag execution. This could bite him in a winner-take-all scenario in a relatively brief 312-mile contest.

One thing he’ll have to overcome is a quantifiably slower car. His Toyota Camry has the seventh-best average speed ranking in the series on 750-hp tracks but trails title contenders Elliott (first), Logano (second) and Keselowski (fourth). He and his team have produced the 11th-fastest car across the last eight races, a form not inspiring optimism.

David Smith is a writer and analyst for MotorsportsAnalytics.com and the co-host of Positive Regression: A Motorsports Analytics Podcast.

NASCAR race schedule this weekend in Phoenix

• Trucks championship: Lucas Oil 150, 8 p.m. Friday, FS1
• Xfinity championship: Desert Diamond Casino West Valley 200, 5 p.m. Saturday, NBCSN
• Cup Series championship: Season Finale 500, 3 p.m. Sunday, NBC

This story was originally published November 7, 2020 at 8:00 PM with the headline "NASCAR paths to victory: Why each top driver will (or won’t) win championship at Phoenix."