One last run: Previewing the NASCAR Cup Series championship race at Phoenix Raceway

The thrilling and unpredictable 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season comes to an end on Sunday when the green flag drops just past 3 p.m. ET at Phoenix Raceway.

Who will emerge as champion?

Here are the contenders:

Ross Chastain

The driver of the No. 1 car has been surprising people all year and starring on the TrackHouse Racing team, a group that has been surprising the motorsports world since it was announced in 2020. Chastain has won two races this season — and he made more driver-enemies than driver-friends along the way — but his rambunctious, put-it-all-on-the-line racing style carried him into the Championship 4 and into NASCAR lore. (Remember the “Hail Melon?” Or the “Haul The Wall,” as his merchandise brand called it? The rest of the sports world is still abuzz about it.)

Christopher Bell

The 27-year-old driver for Joe Gibbs Racing has a storybook ending waiting for him. After dwelling in the Cup Series cellar early this season, Bell made a resurgence in the middle of the year and never stopped, always finding a way to come up clutch when he needed to: He won at New Hampshire in July to make the playoffs, he squeaked through to the Round of 12 on points, he won at Charlotte Motor Speedway’s Roval when any other result wouldn’t do (in a race that even he didn’t think he had a shot at), and then he notched another walk-off win at Martinsville to keep his season alive again. Bell’s presence in the Championship 4 is already historic — he’s the first driver to make the Championship 4 in all three national series (Trucks, Xfinity and Cup) — and a Cup win for Bell would border on legendary.

Or will the Cup Series championship be raised by someone who’s been here before?

Joey Logano

The Team Penske veteran and the Cup Series champion in 2018, won his way into the Championship 4 with an impeccable run at Las Vegas Motor Speedway a few weekends ago. The 32-year-old driver is the veteran of the young group — every other driver is in their 20s — and has thrived at intermediate tracks (much like Phoenix’s 1-mile oval).

Chase Elliott

Elliott has been here before, too. He’s made the Championship 4 three straight years now and even won the title in 2020. The sport’s most popular driver has won the most races this season (five) and has led the most amount of laps (857) in a season defined by parity. And if the No. 9 car doesn’t lead for at least 143 laps on Sunday, it’ll be the first time since 1960 — before the “modern era” — that there wasn’t a driver with a 1,000 laps leader, per Racing-Reference.Info. So even though Elliott’s had a great year, others have been great alongside him. (This arrives in stark contrast in 2021, when Elliott’s Hendrick Motorsports teammate, Kyle Larson, led 2,474 laps en route to a dominant 2021 title.)

Elliott, despite his more-than-solid season, told The Observer earlier this week that he tried to approach the playoffs with no expectations — and it’s worked for him thus far.

“I don’t expect anything,” Elliott said. “We show up each week and try to do our best to give ourselves the best shot to run good and try to race for a win. I think if you were having a good summer, and you expect to be somewhere, you’re getting a bit ahead of yourself, so that’s never done me any good. So I’ve just kind of take it a week at a time and try to put as much effort into what is directly ahead of us.”

Bell shared a similar sentiment. He’s keeping an open mind heading into Phoenix, he said, and is excited to make a real run at Phoenix’s mile oval course.

”It’s always been a really good track for me in the past,” Bell told The Observer earlier this week. “Every Xfinity race I’ve done there, I’ve been extremely competitive and one of the best cars. ... The final four race — you can’t really use that as a gauge of where you’re at because if you’re not in the final four, you’re not really competing for the win, you know? You’re just trying to stay out of the way. With that being said, we don’t really have a lot of races to go off of to see how I really have been in the Cup car there.”

He added: “Certainly it hasn’t been a bad track for me, and it’s one that I feel like I will be a contender at.”

Logano will start on the pole on Sunday. His Team Penske teammate Ryan Blaney will start alongside him. Kyle Larson, who’s racing for an owner’s championship with Hendrick Motorsports, is starting fourth. The rest of the Championship 4’s starting positions: Elliott (P5), Bell (17) and Chastain (25).

Histories of each driver at Phoenix Raceway

Here’s how each driver has done at Phoenix Raceway historically, per NASCAR media notes.

• Number of wins: Logano (2), Elliott (1), Bell (0), Chastain (0).
• Number of career Top 5 finishes: Logano (7), Elliott (5), Chastain (1), Bell (0).
• Number of career Top 10 finishes: Logano (15), Elliott (8), Bell (2), Chastain (1).
• Average finishing position: Elliott (10.7), Logano (13.1), Bell (17), Chastain (20.5).
• Total number of laps led: Logano (721), Elliott (546), Bell (0), Chastain (0).

How to watch NASCAR Cup Series race at Phoenix

• Race: NASCAR Cup Series Championship
• Place: Phoenix Raceway
• Date: Sunday, Nov. 6
• Time: 3 p.m. ET
• Purse: $10,542,284
• TV: NBC, 1:30 p.m. ET
• Radio: MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
• Distance: 312 miles (312 laps)
• Racetrack details: Oval, 1-mile
• Stages: Stage 1 (Ends on Lap 60), Stage 2 (Ends on Lap 185), Final Stage (Ends on Lap 312)

Starting lineup for NASCAR Cup Series championship

Alex Zietlow

The Charlotte Observer

Alex Zietlow writes about the Carolina Panthers and the ways in which sports intersect with life for The Charlotte Observer, where he has been a reporter since August 2022. Zietlow’s work has been honored by the Pro Football Writers Association, the N.C. and S.C. Press Associations, as well as the Associated Press Sports Editors (APSE) group. He’s earned six APSE Top 10 distinctions for his coverage on a variety of topics, from billion-dollar stadium renovations to the small moments of triumph that helped a Panthers kicker defy the steepest odds in sports. Zietlow previously wrote for The Herald in Rock Hill (S.C.) from 2019-22. Support my work with a digital subscription