Matt Rhule’s first Panthers season was a success. Here’s why and what needs to come next

Thirteen months ago, in a meeting room within Bank of America Stadium, Carolina Panthers owner David Tepper sat down with members of the local media following the dismissal of head coach Ron Rivera just hours before.

Tepper discussed how the difficult firing was, but he also outlined expectations for the future. That patience would strongly be required, both internally and externally.

“You think I can promise to anybody that things are going to be great in one year?” Tepper said. “Do you believe in the Tooth Fairy? In Santa Claus? ... If fans are expecting something to be miraculous next year — listen, it could happen … but there has to be a degree of patience to build sustained excellence. … Do (they) want to wait five years for sustained excellence, for 20 years of winning seasons? They better.”

Flash forward to January 2021. A season into the “process” that first-year NFL head coach Matt Rhule and Tepper have put into place. The Panthers will end the season with a record equal to or better than last year’s 5-11 mark with the team’s best player participating in three games all year.

Most predicted Carolina to finish with four or five wins in an NFC South division that features two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks and teams alongside them that are built to win now.

All season long, the Panthers were in games they shouldn’t have been in and kept more teams within reach than was expected. There are also question marks at key positions, like quarterback, and other holes still left behind from last offseason’s departures, including a gaping hole that is almost impossible to fill at linebacker.

The 2020 season wasn’t a roaring success, but it was a first step of many. Big questions lie ahead and getting the answers right will determine how things go from here.

What to take forward

Having patience is easier said than done. That’s true for both Tepper and the people that want to see the Panthers do well. Rhule came to Carolina with a history of turning college programs — Temple and Baylor — around. But those initial seasons didn’t go well record-wise, either, featuring either one or two wins.

Looking back on the expectations for the team coming into the season, the defense was expected to be a unit that would be stumble at times — moving on from a majority of defensive starters and drafting seven defensive players will do that — and the offense was set up to have some success with up-and-coming coordinator Joe Brady calling plays and Christian McCaffrey leading the way.

The seeds from what this defense can develop into have been clearly planted. The Panthers lead the league through Week 16 with 264 tackles on defense by rookies, and 3,256 total defensive snaps by rookies. Carolina has 10 rookies who have recorded defensive snaps, with six players starting at least one game. On top of that, 10 of 11 defensive starters are under contract for next year.

Why is that so important? The keys to what was encouraging about the Panthers defense are improvements and making adjustments before and during games.

After giving up an average of 133.4 rushing yards in the first five games of the season, the defense has allowed an average of 111.3 through the last 10. Carolina allowed the same number of rushing touchdowns (eight) in the first five games as it has in the last 10.

Third down has been another area of growth. The Panthers started the season on a horrific pace, allowing opponents to covert 56.3% of the time through the first seven games. Since then, opponents have converted just 43.9% of third downs.

Defensive coordinator Phil Snow’s tweaks throughout the season have been important. The Panthers’ changing 3-3-5 “college” scheme has confused quarterbacks at times.

One game after making Drew Lock look like Aaron Rodgers in one of the pass defense’s worst games of the season, Rodgers was limited to just 44 second-half passing yards in Week 15. After scoring touchdowns on three straight drives to start the game, the Packers’ offense was unable to get going in the second half and limited to 49 net yards, sixth-fewest in a second half by Green Bay since 1991.

“It’s certainly not perfect, but I think Phil Snow has done a fantastic job,” Rhule said. “... I really think the players have gotten better and better and better within the systems. They understand, they communicate better, they’ve learned from their mistakes, they’ve improved.”

Carolina also leads the league in fumble recoveries (15) and has found unique ways to score, including two fumble recoveries on consecutive plays by Jeremy Chinn, a Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate, vs. the Minnesota Vikings. Chinn already has a 100-plus tackle season and shown an ability to play all over the field. First-round pick defensive tackle Derrick Brown leads all rookie defenders in pressures, per Pro Football Focus, and defensive end Brian Burns is only behind Julius Peppers (19) for the most sacks in a Panther’s first two seasons (16.5). All important building blocks.

On the offensive side of the ball, the steps in the right direction have been a bit harder to see with quarterback Teddy Bridgewater’s performance declining later in the year. In a backup role, Mike Davis, a free agent in 2021, has been a success at running back overall. He’ll finish with more than 1,000 scrimmage yards and among the league’s leaders in broken tackles with a combined 32, per Pro Football Reference.

Curtis Samuel has had a career-year, but will be a free agent as well. DJ Moore continues to be a dynamic, downfield receiver, while Robby Anderson has proved to be one of the best free agent signings the team made during the offseason as he has developed into an all-around receiver.

In the games McCaffrey has played, it showed glimpses of what this offense could have been. And while Davis played well, McCaffrey was missed dearly for his unique abilities as a rusher and receiver. Wins were hard to come by, but the Panthers’ 3-8 record in one-score games was largely a result of scoring late to make the game seem closer than it was. Carolina was in many games that it probably should not have been.

Areas of improvement

For an offense that is 70 yards by Samuel away from having four players with 1,000-plus scrimmage yards (Moore, Anderson and Davis), it has been inconsistent overall and struggled to score late in games.

Bridgewater has one touchdown pass in the fourth quarter this season. If he does not throw one against the Saints, he will become the second Panthers quarterback ever with 100-plus attempts in a season to throw only one fourth-quarter touchdown (Jimmy Clausen, 2010).

There’s also many holes on the roster still to fill. Three of the five starting offensive linemen will be free agents, including often injured veteran left tackle Russell Okung, while the once likely future of 2019 second-round pick Greg Little at the position is now not so clear after being a healthy scratch multiple times in 2020.

“The needs are very apparent, as we go forward,” Tepper said in December. “After evaluating and thinking about it, obviously, the secondary would be one place, that is no secret that (the media) write(s) it up every frickin week.”

The defense needs a sideline-to-sideline linebacker and the secondary could use some help, as Tepper said. Consistency has been too hard to find as young defenders tend to find themselves out of place or mismatched.

“We’ve been losing so it’s been a pretty up-and-down (season),” cornerback Rasul Douglas said this week. “Sometimes we can get the job done and sometimes we’re as good as we think we are. There’s been times where we’re not what we say we are and we don’t do things as we should do it. It’s just been a roller coaster for us as a team”

On special teams, kicker Joey Slye has been inconsistent, and Rhule has proven to be far more likely of late to go for it on fourth down rather than give his kicker a long attempt.

In all eight of those losses, there has been a chance to win or tie the game. That falls on Bridgewater and the coaching staff. Even if there is a new quarterback to go alongside Bridgewater next year, a position the Panthers have already started evaluating for the offseason, communication late in games needs to be corrected.

Rhule has said that winning, especially late in the year, is something that needs to be learned, pointing to the 6-14 record the Panthers had in December and January from 2016-19. But the Panthers have had trouble finishing games all year long. That needs to be fixed throughout the organization.

What’s next?

“Sometimes you’re not winning, so you think it’s not working, but it’s working, you’re just not winning. If you keep doing it, it’ll continue to work and work and work and then you’ll start winning and you came by a hard way, the right way,” Rhule said. “We haven’t won at the level we want, and that’s frustrating and that can discourage you, but it doesn’t mean that you’re not making progress and it doesn’t mean we’re not getting better, doesn’t mean that we’re not improving.”

After finishing the year with a game against the Saints, the Panthers will get to work. A new general manager is needed. The future at quarterback has to be figured out, although Bridgewater’s contract always made it likely he’ll be around in 2021. A likely top-10 draft pick and big free agency moves await.

The four or five wins were expected, and injuries happen every year. But the Panthers having a chance to improve last year’s record without McCaffrey or veteran defensive tackle Kawann Short for most of the season? That’s enough for a largely successful first season, although the real tests are still to come from the decisions made in the months ahead.

This story was originally published January 3, 2021 at 6:00 AM.

Alaina Getzenberg

The Charlotte Observer

Alaina covers the Carolina Panthers for The Charlotte Observer. Before coming to Charlotte, she worked at The Dallas Morning News and The NFL Today on CBS. Support my work with a digital subscription