Baker Mayfield must prove his worth with Panthers. Matt Rhule’s job may depend on it

General manager Scott Fitterer wants to pay a quarterback a lot of money.

“I sure hope we do. It means guys are playing well,” Fitterer said about the quarterback market. “There have been a couple of good quarterbacks signed so its pretty high. But it’s a nice problem for those teams to have. When you have one, we’ll see what it looks like when we get there.”

By “guys”, he means Baker Mayfield, who is the Panthers starting quarterback playing on the final year of his rookie contract. Mayfield took a $3.5 million pay cut (which he can earn back via on-field incentives) to join Carolina.

The Panthers do not know what they have in Mayfield. Fitterer said there have been no long-term contract discussions between him and Mayfield’s camp.

“We told his agent at one point, ‘let’s get through the year here. Let’s get late into the year and evaluate how he is playing,’” Fitterer said. And we’ll address that down the road.”

Mayfield has everything to prove.

If he plays well then Fitterer sounds willing to pay up. How well Mayfield has to play to earn a long-term contract is the $150 million (or more) question.

Carolina making the playoffs guarantees nothing besides a couple million in incentives. Mayfield quarterbacked Cleveland to its first playoff victory since 1994. The Browns did not extend him that off-season. Instead, Mayfield played the bulk of fourth-year off his rookie contract with a torn labrum after suffering the injury in Week 2 last season.

The Browns expected Mayfield to play out his fifth-year option before they landed Deshaun Watson and shipped Mayfield to Carolina.

Deciding to pay Mayfield will come down to a cocktail of objective variables. His stats matter. Throwing single-digit interceptions is important. Quarterback evaluation is an incomplete science because often it comes down to the eye test.

Can Mayfield create positive yardage even when Ben McAdoo calls a lackluster play? Regardless of score, if the Panthers have the ball last is there a likelihood they win because No. 6 is under center? When the offense doesn’t have the answers can Mayfield find them?

Data, film and information dominate football decision making. But at quarterback, a team either has Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert or Kyler Murray — or they don’t.

This offseason, Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah spoke candidly about Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins with USA Today reporter Jori Epstein.

“We don’t have Tom Brady” and “we don’t have Pat[rick] Mahomes... (The Super Bowl) is more likely to win if you have that quarterback,” Adofo-Mensah said. “It’s very unlikely to have that quarterback.”

If the goal is a Super Bowl then Mayfield either needs to prove he’s one of those guys or Carolina would have to accomplish the “very unlikely” with him.

Come December, Fitterer will know where to spend.

This story was originally published September 9, 2022 at 5:48 AM.

Ellis L. Williams

The Charlotte Observer

Hailing from Minnesota, Ellis L. Williams joined the Observer in October 2021 to cover the Carolina Panthers. Prior, he spent two years reporting on the Browns for Cleveland.com/the Plain Dealer. Having escaped cold winters, he’s thrilled to consume football, hoops, music and movies within the Queen City.