Panthers mailbag: Examining options for Ejiro Evero, potential Carolina cap casualties
As the Panthers search for new leaders to run their football operations, their fans are seeking answers after one of the worst seasons in the team’s history.
That’s why The Observer has dusted off the fan mailbag to — you guessed it — answer their inquiries.
Here are three notable questions from social media:
The future of Ejiro Evero
Chris D. asks: Ejiro Evero was blocked interviewing for the Jags’ defensive coordinator position. Does that mean he is back as DC if he is not selected as HC? How does that affect the ability to hire a coach if he cannot choose his own coordinators?
Let’s get this out of the way: Fair or not, blocking interviews for lateral or similar jobs is becoming the standard in the NFL, especially when the requests involve coaches on staffs without head coaches.
Owners and GMs typically grow fond of assistant coaches even when a team, as a whole, falters. Those leaders at the top want to make sure their head coaching vacancy is as appealing as possible, so having some top assistants to retain, in theory, makes the job look better and creates less work for the new guy in charge. Remember, a coordinator coming from another staff isn’t going to be able to take a whole lot of coaches from their previous stomping grounds, in theory.
The Panthers kept offensive line coach James Campen and special teams coordinator Chris Tabor last offseason, as they were seen as appealing holdovers. The Indianapolis Colts blocked defensive coordinator Gus Bradley from interviewing last year, and he was retained by head coach Shane Steichen, who worked with him previously in Los Angeles.
Evero is seen as a respected defensive mind throughout the league. What he has done over the past two years, with two offensive-minded head coaches being fired in the middle of campaigns, has been incredibly impressive. Last season, every major member of the secondary missed game action due to injury, and yet the Panthers’ defense finished with the league’s third-best average against the pass and four-best overall yardage average in a season where the offense was largely inept.
That’s why the Panthers are blocking Evero from other defensive coordinator gigs. If he doesn’t get a head coaching job elsewhere, and the Panthers hire another offensive-minded head coach, why would they let him walk if the new coach wants him?
There’s a chance the new head coach could want his own defensive coordinator, and in that case, Evero would be able to walk like he did with Denver last year.
However, Evero, despite the performance of his unit, has taken his lumps for the Panthers’ turbulent 2023 season.
Last year, Evero interviewed for every job on the market.
This offseason, he has interviewed for the Panthers’ post and the Atlanta Falcons’ opening (he also reportedly has a request from the Seattle Seahawks, too). There are seven openings total after the Patriots quickly hired Jerod Mayo to replace Bill Belchick through a coaching search loophole. Clearly, after two consecutive disastrous seasons for his teams, the polish on Evero’s candidacy has chipped away, even if just a bit.
That’s also why Evero’s future is interesting from the outside looking in. If he is able to leave after the new head coach is hired, he better choose his next stop carefully. In back-to-back years, Evero has been part of a mid-season firing and a forgettable finish. If he sticks in Carolina or heads elsewhere, he needs to make sure the new captain is worth sailing with, or risk his momentum being further evaporated.
Evero is a really good coordinator. I think he’s dealt with quite a bit of bad luck recently. But based on how he’s overcome obstacles over the past two years, it would be hard to bet against him bouncing back.
Still, the recency bias of poor performing teams can poison the well for candidates. Hopefully, for Evero’s sake, that’s not a longstanding issue. And perhaps, he lands the Falcons gig.
It’s also important to remember that Evero isn’t the only coach who has been blocked from interviewing this offseason. Special teams coordinator Chris Tabor was also blocked from speaking with the New York Giants. Tabor also interviewed virtually with the Panthers for their head coaching job. Tabor and Evero are very well respected within the organization and have a very large shot of being retained, regardless of the head coach hire.
Having said that, I would expect the new head coach to have full say on his new staff. Former head coach Frank Reich was asked to go out of his comfort zone when forming his staff last year, and owner David Tepper clearly saw the poor results of that approach.
If Tepper wants a head coach to succeed, he needs to allow the coach to control the building of the staff.
Panthers players vulnerable to new GM’s approach
Robert W. asks: Not targeting anybody specifically, but if the new GM wants to rebuild the roster, how many players could he release this offseason? I don’t think we can ask who’d be most likely to go until we know who the GM is.
Well, the team has 21 unrestricted free agents, so the new GM could simply let most of those players walk. The new decision-maker is going to have some tough negotiations on his plate with pass rusher Brian Burns and linebacker Frankie Luvu set to test the open market.
The new GM is likely to want to sign one to an extension before March and use the franchise tag on the other player. However, ideally, both would be re-signed before free agency, as the tag hits the salary cap directly and would hinder spending quite significantly on the open market. Last season, the linebacker cost for a the non-exclusive franchise tag was $20.9 million, according to Spotrac.
If the Panthers were to tag Burns or Luvu, they’d need to lighten their load on the cap to spend in free agency. As of now, the Panthers are projected to have $40.4 million in cap space this offseason (the final cap number hasn’t been announced yet), according to Spotrac. But taking $21 million away would make a vast spending spree next to impossible.
The Panthers need to figure out what they want to do with aging players on notable salaries. Cornerback Donte Jackson’s potential release would save the Panthers roughly $6 million, according to Over The Cap. Cutting tight end Ian Thomas would save the Panthers around $2.35 million. The release of wideout Terrace Marshall would lead to a $1.44 million savings.
The new GM knows he’s going to take on a lot of dead money from the mistakes of the previous regime. That comes with the territory, and is a universal truth for GMs who are replacing fired execs. Dead money is spent money — it doesn’t come at an actual cash cost.
The GM, and the new head coach, will need to figure out whether June 1 releases are worth the waiting game.
For instance, cutting running back Miles Sanders outright in March would lead to a loss of $2.77 million with a dead money charge of $10.1 million. However, if Sanders were to be given a June 1 designation or get released after June 1, the Panthers could split up his dead money charge over the next two years and gain $200,000 on the cap. It’s not a large savings, and the Panthers would need to keep his charge until June anyway, so the Panthers will probably hang onto Sanders during the offseason program to figure out if he is still a worthwhile contributor.
Tight end Hayden Hurst is another player in that boat. Cutting Hurst in March would lead to just $193,332 in savings, but $9.8 million in dead money. A June 1 designation would save $2.25 million in the summer after free agency is largely done.
Linebacker Shaq Thompson reworked his deal and took a pay cut last offseason to finish his career in Carolina, but after a major injury and former GM Scott Fitterer’s departure, the new lead exec might balk on that outlook. Cutting Thompson wouldn’t open up a lot of cap space ($420,000), but the new GM might want new leadership.
Safety Xavier Woods and right tackle Taylor Moton are coming off really strong seasons, but both veteran players would open up a big bunch of cap space if released. Woods would save $4.5 million, while Moton would save $5.25 million. Both players were bright spots and should be back next year, but a new GM could want to start fresh, despite the lack of talent on the roster.
The saving grave for most holdovers is that the Panthers only have six picks in the upcoming draft. A team can only make so many moves in one offseason.
Also, doing that full-on gutting typically leads to poor results. Just ask Fitterer and Reich.
Can Panthers pull a Texans and improve mightily in one offseason?
Christoper G. asks: Ok, so there’s no first-round draft pick. What’s realistic to expect from the rest of the draft and free agency? What impact players can be found? What can they afford, cap wise? Simpler question: How much can this team improve in the offseason?
Christopher, it’s not going to be easy. As discussed above, the Panthers have quite a bit of salary cap space, in theory, but there are some mitigating factors that could come with long negotiations for Burns, Luvu and contract-year defensive lineman Derrick Brown.
A new GM is likely to want to avoid restructuring the contracts of aging veterans that he didn’t acquire, so the Panthers will probably spend wisely this offseason.
The weaknesses are clear: pass rusher, interior defensive line and basically everything on offense outside of quarterback and slot receiver. The Panthers are likely to spend on offense and use draft picks to fill out the defense, but that strategy could change based on the outlook of the new head coach and GM.
With a lack of a first-round pick, it’s hard to expect a Houston-like turnaround. The Texans used two top-3 overall picks on C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson, who have seemingly been among the best players on each side of the ball in last year’s draft class so far.
The Panthers need to build around the long-term philosophy of their new leadership with the GM and head coach in lockstep.
The Detroit Lions’ approach seems reasonable, even without the benefits of a trade that lands them a lot of draft capital — though, a Burns trade could be plausible with the use of the franchise tag. The Panthers aren’t likely to be contenders next season, as there will be too much change and not enough assets. Seeing a gradual growth over the next two or three years is a worthwhile endeavor.
I wouldn’t expect a massive influx of top-tier talent or notable youth. Carolina will likely try to add a big piece or three in free agency and hope to draft well in March.
