Carolina Panthers mailbag: Could Canales’ arrival lead to a major surprise departure?
Free agency is just a week away, and Carolina Panthers fans are wondering what could happen when the market opens on March 13.
Naturally, Panthers fans have questions about free agency, and that’s why The Charlotte Observer is bringing back the Panthers mailbag to answer some of the big offseason questions asked by the Carolina faithful.
Here are some standout questions from social media:
Potential changes by new Panthers brass
Eric asks: Do you have a sense on which players Canales was thinking about when he spoke on emotional attachments and deciding which players weren’t good enough? Am I reading between the lines too much if I believe center Bradley Bozeman is among them?
For those unaware of the quote by head coach Dave Canales from last week at the NFL Scouting Combine — as mentioned by Eric — here it is in its entirety:
“The way that I approach it is always, every year is, ‘How can we challenge and improve our roster?’ So, I truly believe that we should take every position on our roster, after every season, and we should say, ‘Can we get better here?’ or ‘Are the players that we have — can they improve more from where they were at the year before?’ And kind of measure, and take a good honest look at that, position by position and challenge it — challenge the roster in the draft, challenge the roster in free agency.
“And I’m not afraid to say that, and that should always be true, so that we never get complacent with the guys that we have. Although we love them, although we’re excited about them — and I’m still learning the Carolina Panthers as I’ve been watching film.
“Now, I have the benefit of not having the emotional connection to a lot of these guys, so I can come in objectively and say, ‘That’s good enough, that’s not good enough.’ And I don’t want to get into specifics about who I’m talking about, in that regard, but that is my advantage right now. So, I just really come in here with an open mind for how to improve our roster before I have all of these relationships that I built.”
Canales is coming in with fresh eyes, and after a 2-15 campaign, that’s not a bad thing. To me, this quote was about as candid and forthcoming as Canales got in Indianapolis, and it made me genuinely curious as well.
In chatting with folks around the league at the scouting combine, I got the vibe that the Panthers will be very selective with who they bring back among their impending free agents — and for good reason.
Did I mention the Panthers went 2-15 last year?
The team has franchise-tagged pass rusher Brian Burns, and it is well-documented that bringing back linebacker Frankie Luvu is high on their to-do list. But I don’t expect many of the mid-tier and lower level free agents (DJ Chark, Kamu Grugier-Hill, CJ Henderson, etc.) to return. It wouldn’t be surprising to see guys like Sam Franklin and Laviska Shenault move on as well.
Regarding Bradley Bozeman, I was told by multiple sources that the Panthers are expected to a pursue a center this offseason.
Now, that doesn’t mean Bozeman is a certified goner, but it does send an alert to his status. He’s due a $1.5 million roster bonus on March 16 — three days after the start of free agency — and the team can avoid that payment by cutting him ahead of that deadline. However, the team would only save $360,000 in cap space by releasing him, and they would then incur a $7.28 million dead money cap penalty for the move as well. It’s also worth nothing he is guaranteed $4 million this season, regardless of whether he’s on the roster or not.
Still, the decision on Bozeman needs to come down to his work on the field. The Panthers have been adamant that they want to improve the offensive line.
After already anointing Ikem Ekwonu as the starting left tackle, the Panthers’ upgrade options are mostly limited to the interior, especially with Taylor Moton being relatively consistent at right tackle.
It would cost more to cut Austin Corbett than to keep him. Brady Christensen is on the final year of his rookie deal and his versatility makes him worth keeping around on the cheap.
So, Bozeman is really the only major departure to project on that line that makes sense, so his status is worth monitoring, as the Panthers can negotiate with free agents for roughly five days (legal tampering negotiations begin at noon on Monday) before the roster bonus deadline for the player. The Panthers also have the option of paying the bonus, keeping Bozeman through the offseason program and making a decision from there with a post-June 1 release. Though, that move is unlikely.
Bozeman might not have been the subject of Canales’ comments, by the way. It’s possible Canales was discussing multiple players, including impending free agents.
Cornerback Donte Jackson ($5.93 million in cap savings) and tight end Ian Thomas ($2.26 million in cap savings) are long-time contributors who project as worthwhile potential cap casualties, so they could have been who Canales was alluding to in his comments.
Only Canales knows who he was specifically discussing in that moment.
Trade value temperature check
Woddy asks: Who could be traded where we could get some picks in return?
I won’t sugarcoat this, Woddy ... the pickings are slim.
The trade value probably starts and ends with Burns, who the Panthers franchise-tagged on Tuesday. This Panthers squad doesn’t have many trade chips with more than 20 free agents and several holes to fill. Trading someone like cornerback Jaycee Horn or safety Xavier Woods or tight end Tommy Tremble, would only create more roster tasks to complete, and probably for less-than-market value.
So, let’s talk about Burns. According to CBS Sports’ Josina Anderson, the Panthers cut off contract talks with Burns following the scouting combine.
That decision (along with the placement of the non-exclusive franchise tag) likely means one of two things: 1) the Panthers want Burns to go out and negotiate with other teams to find his true market value so they can match those numbers (or an offer sheet) if the proposed deals are palatable or 2) they want to trade him.
Given the way last season unfolded, I can’t imagine Burns playing in Carolina on the 1-year, $24 million franchise tag. Creating added drama for the first year of the Canales and Dan Morgan era would be a jarring mistake and could potentially sour the new brass’s goodwill off the jump.
If the Panthers can get a first-round pick in 2024 and more for Burns, they should make the move. Montez Sweat and Chase Young, who had arguably better 2023 campaigns than Burns, were traded for a second-round pick and a third-round pick, respectively, ahead of the trade deadline on Halloween. For Burns to secure a much bigger return, the Panthers will need to hope that a contender with a lot of cap space steps up to the plate.
The Houston Texans, for instance, have a quarterback on a rookie deal, a playoff-caliber roster, a late first-round pick (from Cleveland) and roughly $70 million cap space, according to Over the Cap. That’s a logical trade partner makeup for a Burns swap.
The Los Angeles Rams — who offered a monster deal for Burns in 2022 — also seem like logical trade partners. The Indianapolis Colts and Detroit Lions would make sense as well.
The Panthers aren’t going to get the two first-round picks and more that they were offered by the Rams in 2022, as Burns no longer has rookie-deal savings and wants to be paid around the top of the market. But I think he’s worth at least a first-round pick and a Day 3 selection at this point. He’s just 25 and has made two Pro Bowls. The Panthers can negotiate a return of less than two first-round picks if Burns is willing to sign the tag in a trade scenario.
The Panthers could try to trade running back Miles Sanders after a disastrous debut in Carolina, but I can’t imagine they’ll get many (or any) takers, unless a low-end pick swap is offered. I also don’t think teams are going to be anxious to trade for wide receiver Adam Thielen, as he turns 34 in August.
According to The Athletic, the team plans to release tight end Hayden Hurst, despite minimal cap savings and a rather large dead money bill. Like Sanders, Hurst’s contract and 2023 season are pretty big turnoffs in a trade negotiation.
And while ESPN has reported that Jackson will be released or traded, it’s hard to imagine him commanding much of a trade market. Sure, he’s a starting-caliber cornerback in a league that is in desperate need of them, but he’s also got a history of injuries and inconsistent play. Plus, teams know they just need to wait out the March 16 roster bonus deadline for him to be released. At best, I think a late-round pick swap is in the cards.
Adam Thielen’s Carolina future
Greg asks: Is Adam Thielen going to be around in 2024 or will they look to trade him?
Thielen was the Panthers’ best player on offense last year. It would be hard for Canales to look at the film from last season and draw any other conclusion. So, I can’t imagine Thielen was the guy he had in mind in the above quote.
I’m under the impression Thielen and his family enjoy living in Charlotte, and Canales’ offense is thoughtful enough to fit his skill set. I never got the vibe — even after the Frank Reich firing — that Thielen was anxious to get out of town, and the impression I’ve gotten is that the Panthers would like to keep him.
Having said that, Thielen’s strength in the slot somewhat limits what the Panthers can do from a versatility standpoint. The soon-to-be 34-year-old isn’t going to win a lot on the outside, so he is stationed in the slot, which takes away opportunities in that area for others.
But I don’t think anyone, including the Panthers, knows what Jonathan Mingo is at this point, so providing a completely clean slate outside of him for Bryce Young would seemingly be foolish. I also don’t think Thielen would command more than a mid-Day 3 pick in return for his services, which isn’t really a worthwhile move, considering the lack of talent already on the roster.
Obviously, things can change — an unexpected cap casualty could lead to a major signing that pushes Thielen out of favor — but for now, I expect Thielen to be catching passes from Young this season.
