ACC is wide open at the start of a strange basketball season. Who are the contenders?

The best team in the ACC this season may be the one that stays the healthiest, which is a reflection both of the conditions under which this season will be played and the lack of an obvious favorite. It’s a wide-open race at the top this year, and while Virginia certainly is the front-runner, the pack isn’t far behind at all as things get started Wednesday night.

It’s pretty easy to lump them into three groups. The contenders: Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, Florida State. The potential threats: Louisville, N.C. State, Miami, Syracuse. And then everyone else. The eventual champion will be one of those eight teams, more likely the first four, but that’s far from guaranteed. With so many departures, incoming freshmen and transfers who could tip the balance of power, it’s going to take a while for the ACC to sort itself out.

1. Virginia

The Cavaliers return point guard Kihei Clark and versatile big man Jay Huff and add 6-8 Marquette transfer Sam Hauser, a potential player-of-the-year candidate. That’s enough to contend. Their title chances and national outlook will depend on whether they can find reliable perimeter shooting, whether that’s returnees Casey Morsell and Thomas Woldetensae or freshman Jabri Abdur-Rahim.

2. Duke

Yet another year hitting the reset button with a new cast of key contributors, but at least the Blue Devils are used to it. There’s talent among the freshmen -- point guard Jeremy Roach and swingman Jalen Johnson in particular -- but the Blue Devils need sophomores Matthew Hurt and Wendell Moore Jr. to take a big leap forward as scorers. This is a team with less buzz but perhaps a better chance of playing as a coherent group, led by senior guard Jordan Goldwire.

3. North Carolina

This won’t be the first time Roy Williams has relied on a freshman-heavy backcourt, with R.J. Davis and Caleb Love expected to share the load. Preseason player of the year senior Garrison Brooks and sophomore Armando Bacot form a veteran frontcourt backed up by talented but raw freshmen. Leaky Black has done a little of everything so far in his career without really excelling; is he just a useful utility reserve or can he be an impact player at multiple spots that pushes the Tar Heels to the next level?

4. Florida State

Leonard Hamilton brings in another one-and-done freshman as the defending champions* rebuild around Scottie Barnes, who will be at the center of the offense. This team that may not be as deep as the Seminoles usually are, especially in the post, but it has a couple versatile scoring guards in senior M.J. Walker and juco transfer Sardaar Calhoun.

5. Louisville

It’s a full-on retooling for Louisville, which will rely heavily on transfers Carlik Jones (Radford) and Charles Minlend (San Francisco) as well as David Johnson, who had a breakout second half as a freshman. But Louisville will have to wait out injuries to Minlend and big man Malik Williams before it even has a sense of what kind of team it really is.

6. N.C. State

D.J. Funderburk and Manny Bates give the Wolfpack one of the best two-way frontcourts in the league, with Funderburk handling the offense and Bates handling the defense. Devon Daniels needs to become a more efficient scorer in the backcourt, but can be explosive. The big question for the Wolfpack is who will handle the ball; if they find an answer, the ceiling is higher.

7. Miami

The Hurricanes have the league’s best point guard in Chris Lykes and a proven scorer in Kameron McGusty, but the loss of forward Sam Waardenburg for the season was a crucial blow and puts a lot of pressure on Cincinnati transfer Nysier Brooks. Miami needs sophomores Isaiah Wong and Harlond Beverly to take big steps forward.

8. Syracuse

Illinois transfer Alan Griffin may be the X-factor for the Orange, who lack starpower but not depth. Buddy Boeheim is one of the league’s best long-range shooters, and Marek Dolezaj one of its most versatile players. Syracuse has the big man it needs at the heart of the 2-3 zone in Bourama Sidibe but needs wing Quincy Guerrier to play better than he did as a freshman.

9. Virginia Tech

Mike Young got far more out of this group last season than anyone expected, and adds a proven scorer in Kansas State transfer Cartier Diarra and a rebounder in Delaware transfer Justyn Mutts. Tyrece Radford emerged as the best of the Hokies’ freshmen last year and they have a senior point guard in Wabissa Bede. The transfers give an overachieving group an immediate talent boost.

10. Georgia Tech

There’s real starpower here in Jose Alvarado and Michael Devoe, two of the league’s best guards. There’s just not enough of it. Raleigh’s Moses Wright was overlooked as a recruit but he’s developed into a solid big man. But it gets thin fast on the Georgia Tech bench.

11. Clemson

Aamir Simms is an all-ACC caliber big man who’s also a lot of fun to watch. The Tigers need several players in expanded roles -- John Newman III, Al-Amir Dawes, Clyde Trapp -- to make the most of that opportunity. Fordham transfer Nick Honor is likely to take over at point guard.

12. Notre Dame

Underestimate Mike Brey at your peril but he has a lot of work to do this season, even with Prentiss Hubb returning at point guard. Dane Goodwin can shoot and Nate Laszewski and Juwan Durham are a decent forward tandem, but this group isn’t as talented as some of its predecessors.

13. Pittsburgh

Upgrade the Panthers if Miami (Ohio) transfer Nike Sibande gets a waiver to be immediately eligible, but that remains in the inscrutable hands of the NCAA. Xavier Johnson disappointed as a sophomore and is capable of more, while Justin Champagnie was a pleasant surprise as a freshman.

14. Boston College

The Eagles’ biggest addition is guard Wynston Tabbs, who missed last season with a knee injury after a solid freshman year, but they also add transfers Rich Kelly (Quinnipiac) and Makai Ashton-Langford (Providence). Versatile forward Steffon Mitchell is one of the ACC’s best post defenders.

15. Wake Forest

Can Steve Forbes cobble together an overachieving debut season the way Young did at VT? It’ll be just as hard. Olivier Sarr’s transfer to Kentucky didn’t help, but Isaiah Mucius is back and Forbes is bringing Daivien Williamson with him from East Tennessee State among other transfers.

This story was originally published November 25, 2020 at 7:00 AM with the headline "ACC is wide open at the start of a strange basketball season. Who are the contenders?."

Luke DeCock

The News & Observer

Luke DeCock is a former journalist for the News & Observer.