Duke-UNC prediction: Why North Carolina will beat the Blue Devils in the Final Four
Why UNC will win: A Tar Heel victory hinges more on the play of Armando Bacot than any other factor. Bacot, who is UNC’s best player and its dominant inside force, picked up two fouls in the first four minutes of the first Duke game while trying to guard Paolo Banchero. He was on the bench for most of the time as Duke ran out to a 31-8 lead and cruised from there.
But Bacot was exceptional in the second Duke game, when UNC famously spoiled Coach K’s final game at Cameron Indoor Stadium. And he has been even better in the NCAA tournament, averaging 16.5 points and 15.8 rebounds. Bacot’s inside presence means more open 3-point looks for Caleb Love, R.J. Davis and Brady Manek. All have been playing well and must continue to do so — they each had 20-plus points in the second Duke game, as did Bacot. Love, in particular, is an X factor since his play can vary wildly from game to game. UNC is also an older team than Duke, which will help.
Coach Hubert Davis learned his lesson from the first Duke contest and won’t try to make Bacot guard Paolo Banchero again. That mission will fall to Leaky Black, UNC’s best defender. As long as Love plays at a high level and Bacot stays on the floor and wins the matchup down low, UNC will roll.
Why UNC won’t win: If Bacot gets two quick fouls again, that’s a major problem. If Love sinks into one of those games where he shoots a lot of contested shots and turns the ball over multiple times, that’s a problem. If Manek gets taken advantage of on defense, that’s a problem.
Duke’s offense has been clicking at a remarkable level. So it’s also possible the Blue Devils — who have more future NBA players on their roster than UNC can boast — will simply out-talent the Tar Heels.
This story was originally published April 1, 2022 at 6:00 AM.
