Hurricanes raged across the Atlantic last year. Here's a first look at the new season.
The Atlantic should see a calmer hurricane season this year with three to five major storms, AccuWeather forecasters say, after a devastating 2017.
Hurricane season runs from June through November. AccuWeather expects 12 to 15 tropical storms to form in the Atlantic and six to eight of those storms to strengthen into hurricanes. Seventeen tropical storms formed last year.
Three to four named hurricanes should make landfall, the service said, compared to the six storms that hit the U.S., including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, last year.
AccuWeather expects sea surface temperatures to remain warmer than normal, as they were in 2017, in regions of the Atlantic where most storms form. Warm water makes it more likely tropical storms will form.
But another weather pattern could limit storm formation, the service said. The cooling of Pacific water called a La Niña should mean normal wind shear, the change in wind speed or direction that is a factor in hurricane formation.
"The thing that's causing the balance to tip in one direction (this year) is that sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal," AccuWeather hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski said in a statement.
The Gulf of Mexico is most likely to see storms early in the season because of the warm water already present, but an area from Houston to Florida and up to North Carolina's Outer Banks may become targets for the rest of the season, the service said.
"This season may not (bring) as many impacts, but I'm almost afraid to tell people this because it only takes one big storm to hit you to cause massive damage," Kottlowski said. "We saw that from Harvey, Irma and Maria last year. If all we had was just another Irma or Harvey, that would be more than enough to cause catastrophic damage for any coastal community."
Hurricane Harvey flooded Houston last August, leaving at least $125 billion in damage. Category 5 Hurricane Irma followed, slamming into the Caribbean and Florida Keys. Last September, Hurricane Maria ravaged Puerto Rico, which is still recovering.
This story was originally published April 3, 2018 at 7:00 AM with the headline "Hurricanes raged across the Atlantic last year. Here's a first look at the new season.."