Charlotte hasn’t had a GOP mayor since McCrory. Can Kenny Smith change that?

With House Bill 2 and the Keith Scott shooting likely to be key issues, some Republicans believe they have a good chance of winning this year’s Charlotte mayoral race – despite a large Democratic advantage in registered voters.

Kenny Smith, a second-term City Council member who represents south Charlotte’s District 6, said he will make a “major announcement” Thursday morning. He’s expected to say that he’s running for mayor.

Smith’s announcement will likely be a changing of the guard for the GOP. Former council member Edwin Peacock, the Republican candidate for mayor in 2013 and 2015, said Tuesday he’s not running – clearing the path for Smith to challenge the Democratic candidate, possibly incumbent Jennifer Roberts.

“I am supporting Kenny 100 percent,” Peacock said. “I’m not running unless something dramatically changes.”

The last Republican to win a mayoral election was Pat McCrory in his 2007 re-election. The last Republican to win a citywide at-large council seat was in 2009, when Peacock was re-elected.

Smith didn’t return phone calls from the Observer Tuesday.

Roberts has drawn two high-profile Democratic challengers: Mayor Pro Tem Vi Lyles and State Sen. Joel Ford.

The party primaries are in September. The general election is in November.

For Republicans, the voter registration numbers in Charlotte are daunting. There are more than twice as many Democrats (48 percent of voters) as Republicans (22 percent).

But the last two elections have been relatively close.

In 2015, Peacock lost to Roberts, 52.3 percent to 47.6 percent – a difference of 3,730 votes. Two years earlier, Peacock lost to Patrick Cannon, 53.1 percent to 46.7 percent – a difference of 6,094 votes.

What could be different about this year’s election is there are more high-profile issues that have gained the attention of voters.

The first is the lingering controversy over Charlotte’s nondiscrimination ordinance and House Bill 2, the state law that nullified it.

The second is the Keith Scott shooting from September and the protest and riots that followed.

“This is probably the best opportunity a Republican has had in a long time, given the long list of issues Jennifer (Roberts) has presented in a year and a half,” said Republican political consultant and strategist Larry Shaheen, who is not working for any candidate this election cycle.

Roberts’ campaign manager, Sam Spencer, disagrees. He said one factor working against Smith – or any Republican – is disdain local Democrats and independents have for Republicans in Raleigh and in the Trump administration.

“We are confident the mayor will be re-elected based on her record of delivering for the people of Charlotte,” he said. “It’s hard to see where this will be the year for Kenny to win given how ineffective his party has been in Raleigh and Washington.”

If Smith is the Republican candidate, he will be able to differentiate himself on LGBT protections against whichever Democrat wins – Roberts, Lyles or Ford.

Smith opposed expanding the city’s nondiscrimination ordinance to give legal protections for the LGBT community. He voted against the ordinance in 2015, even after council members removed language that would have allowed transgender individuals to use the bathroom that matched their gender identity.

The Scott shooting and protests will likely be a big issue as well.

But Smith’s position on the Scott shooting doesn’t differ dramatically from the Democratic candidates’.

He has not criticized the city’s response to the shooting and the protests. He also has not said Charlotte-Mecklenburg Police should have done more to stop the violence in University City and uptown in the two days after the Sept. 20 shooting.

Shaheen, however, thinks that public safety will be a big issue for Smith.

Two years ago, Peacock tried to make the rising crime rate an issue against Roberts, but it didn’t work.

“For the first time, we will have a real conversation on safety,” he said. “Murder rates have increasingly risen. This election will come down to whether we want the police officers to keep us safe or do we want them to be sensitive.”

This story was originally published March 7, 2017 at 4:56 PM with the headline "Charlotte hasn’t had a GOP mayor since McCrory. Can Kenny Smith change that?."