Going to a New Year’s Eve party in NC? This tool lets you calculate the COVID risk
There might be plenty to celebrate on New Year’s Eve — finally, an end to 2020 — but reveling with family and friends carries risk during the coronavirus pandemic.
An online tool developed by the Georgia Institute of Technology helps calculate the chance that someone attending an event is infected with COVID-19, whether it’s a gathering of 10 people or a party of 500.
So what’s the risk in North Carolina?
It depends on where you live and the size of the event.
For example, there’s a 25% chance that at least one person attending a Mecklenburg County gathering of 10 people has the coronavirus. The risk level jumps to 77% for an event with 50 attendees.
The risk is slightly lower in Wake County, with a 22% percent chance in a 10-person gathering and a 72% chance in a 50-person gathering.
Those risks rise as more people are added to a guest list. For example, there’s a 92% chance of someone having the coronavirus at a 100-person gathering in Wake County and a 94% chance of that happening in Mecklenburg County.
Here are some other highlights:
▪ The county with the highest risk level is Hyde, in the eastern part of the state. It boasts a 48% chance of someone at an event with 10 people having COVID-19. The state’s other higher-risk areas are in Western North Carolina and outside of Charlotte, where chances are about 30%.
▪ Counties with the lowest risk levels include Chatham and Orange, both in the Triangle. Chances of encountering someone with COVID-19 at a 10-person gathering is lowest in Tyrrell County in Eastern North Carolina, where the risk is 6%.
▪ For those planning to celebrate New Year’s Eve along the coast, risk levels for 10-person gatherings range from 14% in Brunswick and Currituck counties to 48% in Hyde County.
To come up with the findings, a team from Georgia Tech teamed up with Stanford University, RStudio and the Applied Bioinformatics Laboratory to study COVID-19 testing across the nation. Analysts then estimated the likelihood of someone being positive, assuming actual case totals were five times higher than reported.
“Because of under-testing and the risk of exposure and infection, these risk calculations provide further support for the ongoing need for social distancing and protective measures,” researchers said. “Such precautions are still needed even in small events, given the large number of circulating cases.”
This New Year’s Eve, health officials have warned against gathering in large groups to help slow the spread of the coronavirus. If you plan to hold an event to welcome 2021, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends being outside as much as possible.
To help reduce the risk of spreading COVID-19, N.C. Gov. Roy Cooper earlier this month issued a curfew from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. The state also has capped gatherings at 10 people indoors and 50 people outdoors.
In recent weeks, North Carolina has seen coronavirus-related hospitalizations soar. On Tuesday, the number of patients reached a record high for the third consecutive day.
Under the latest coronavirus alert map from state health officials, almost two-thirds of North Carolina’s 100 counties are in the red zone, meaning community spread in those areas is “critical.” No matter which labels their counties received, residents in all parts of the state are urged to stay home.
“Individuals in all counties should avoid holiday travel, follow guidance for celebrating winter holidays safety, and get the COVID-19 vaccine when it is available and their turn,” the N.C. Department of Health and Human Services said in its update last week.
This story was originally published December 30, 2020 at 1:08 PM with the headline "Going to a New Year’s Eve party in NC? This tool lets you calculate the COVID risk."
