COVID positivity rate hits new high in Charlotte. Meck averages 800+ new cases per day.

Mecklenburg County is averaging more than 800 COVID-19 cases each day — an increase of almost 45% compared to the daily caseload just one month ago, a Charlotte Observer analysis of public health data on Friday shows.

While day-to-day figures fluctuate, the weekly average of cases, along with the most recent COVID-19 test positivity rate and a spike in hospitalizations, underscore a rapidly worsening spread of the virus in Charlotte.

▪ Mecklenburg’s positivity rate hit 16% in the past week, a new all-time high as infections swell in the aftermath of Christmas and New Year’s celebrations. That’s also a 45% increase over the past month, signaling the virus is circulating more rapidly in and around Charlotte.

▪ Since March, more than 69,000 cases of COVID-19 have been reported in Mecklenburg County, according to the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services. That’s a rate of 6,223 cases for every 100,000 residents.

▪ In January so far, the county has seen more than 6,600 infections.

The true case total is likely far higher, though, due to asymptomatic spread of the virus and irregularities in reporting COVID-19 test results from the holidays, public health experts warn.

▪ Local officials say 622 residents have died of coronavirus-related complications, with nearly half linked to outbreaks at long-term care facilities like nursing homes. The majority of deaths as of Wednesday were among residents ages 60 and older, though seven residents ages 20-39 and 73 residents ages 40-59 have also died.

▪ The increases cannot solely be explained through increased testing. In the week leading up to Christmas, an average of 5,220 COVID-19 tests were administered daily. Now, the average has dropped to just below 4,000, an Observer analysis finds.

Daily caseload numbers could keep ballooning through mid-February, Mecklenburg Public Health Director Gibbie Harris said this week. Escalating trends might persist into this spring too, depending on the pace of vaccinations locally and the public’s vigilance for consistent mask wearing and social distancing, among other prevention efforts.

People must consider their risk of COVID-19 exposure whenever they leave home, Novant Health infectious disease expert Dr. David Priest told reporters Friday.

“In the middle of a pandemic and the rates of COVID we have in communities right now, it will happen to you,” Priest said of potential infections. “Even people that take a lot of precautions, that happens to them sometimes....Assume that where you’re going, COVID is as well.”

Rising hospitalizations

The pandemic’s worrisome trajectory has taken a firm hold in the last six weeks, punctuated by sudden and steep spikes in hospitalizations.

In the past week, the average number of coronavirus patients needing hospital-level care in Mecklenburg reached 508, the latest county health data show. Daily hospitalizations exceeded 500 for the first time on Sunday. By Wednesday, the latest day public health data is available, the volume climbed to 537.

Atrium Health and Novant Health leaders say the hospital systems still have beds and ventilators available to manage the influx of coronavirus patients. Smaller hospitals elsewhere across North Carolina, including rural counties, are already inundated with patients, some of whom have been diverted to the Charlotte area to access more expansive care.

“One of the advantages when you’re a larger system is you have a lot of acute care facilities in the market, and that allows you to have a strategy for moving of patients or caring for particular types of patients in particular locations,” Priest said. “At this point...we don’t have to go on diversion.”

Hospital and public health officials say staffing remains a key concern, particularly if medical personnel are out sick through isolation and quarantine protocols. Priest said individuals with nursing backgrounds have volunteered to support Novant’s pandemic response, in addition to retired healthcare workers.

Amber D’Souza, an epidemiology professor at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said the pandemic has reached a critical inflection point across the country. Last spring and summer, available healthcare workers could be redeployed to certain regions of the country overwhelmed with cases. That’s no longer an option amid nationwide virus flareups.

“The ripple effects are profound once the hospital systems become stressed,” D’Souza told the Observer, listing possibilities like longer wait times in the emergency department and a shortage of personal protective equipment.

“We’re in a crisis. Whenever you have to perform in non-optimal conditions, we are concerned.”

This story was originally published January 8, 2021 at 12:21 PM.