Latest COVID data in Charlotte: Hospital demand slows after January peak 

Coronavirus-related hospitalizations in the Charlotte region are expected to maintain a downward trajectory over the next two weeks, the latest COVID-19 projections from Novant Health show.

But even with that drop, the hospital census will remain stubbornly high compared to a milder peak last July, Dr. David Priest, Novant Health infectious diseases specialist, told reporters Tuesday morning.

By the numbers

▪ Weekly average of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Mecklenburg: 372

That’s a 14% decline compared to one month ago.

▪ Mid-January saw the peak of 540 people hospitalized, based on the weekly average

▪ The highest single-day hospitalizations: 565 on Jan. 13

▪ The daily census dropped to 353 on Sunday, the most recent day data is available.

“We have treated and sent home approximately 10,500 patients during the course of the pandemic, which is just an incredible number,” Priest said of Novant’s network, which also serves other parts of North Carolina.

New strains of COVID-19

Hospital leaders and public health officials are warily monitoring the presence of mutated coronavirus strains, including the UK variant that was detected in Mecklenburg less than two weeks ago.

But a lack of screening infrastructure to analyze positive COVID-19 test samples means North Carolina officials cannot detect how quickly such variants — which researchers say are more contagious and potentially more dangerous — are spreading, the Observer has reported. The UK variant is expected to become the domain strain in the United States in the coming weeks, according to modeling from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“We don’t have a sense of day to day what we’re dealing with, but we are working under the assumption that the variants are in our communities,” Priest said.

In the short-term, officials are also bracing for the impact of crowded Super Bowl gatherings on COVID-19 metrics.

“We asked folks to avoid gathering for the holidays — we all know what actually happened,” Mecklenburg Deputy Public Health Director Raynard Washington said on Twitter on Monday. “Let’s not make the same mistakes this Super Bowl Sunday. It’s just a football game.”

The county’s COVID-19 directive, which urges Mecklenburg residents to stay at home as much as possible and avoid interactions with people beyond their household, is in effect through Feb. 28.

Mecklenburg has recorded 87,233 coronavirus cases since the start of the pandemic, the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services reported Tuesday morning. County officials say 793 residents have died of coronavirus-related complications, with January the deadliest month of the pandemic so far.

More COVID-19 updates

The positivity rate and caseload data is current as of Jan. 31, the most recent public release of data from the county.

▪ On average, Mecklenburg County is adding roughly 580 new infections daily.

Two weeks ago, the average daily caseload was 680, according to an Observer analysis.

But despite improving trends, the latest geographic breakdown of Mecklenburg’s case rate by ZIP code show certain neighborhoods continue to be disproportionately impacted by COVID-19.

▪ The average COVID-19 test positivity rate dropped to 10.7% over the past week, compared to 15% earlier this month. This is the lowest positivity rate seen since early December, before a holiday surge in infections.

▪ Mecklenburg County Public Health has received 11,525 first doses of COVID-19 vaccines. But a higher number of first doses — 13,274 — have been administered, with extra doses extracted from some Pfizer vaccine vials. The county has also received 8,775 second doses and administered 3,135 shots.

Hannah Smoot contributed to this report.

This story was originally published February 2, 2021 at 3:24 PM.