‘Close to the magic number.’ COVID positivity rate, hospitalizations drop in Charlotte.

Mecklenburg County’s average COVID-19 positivity rate fell to 5.6% in the past week, notching the lowest level reached since the October plateau of new infections.

It’s a marked decrease for Mecklenburg, which just two weeks ago posted a positivity rate of 9.2%, measured across a 7-day moving average. At this point last month, Mecklenburg’s rate was 12.2% — down from a peak of 16% on Jan. 8, according to a Charlotte Observer analysis of county public health data.

The rate is now just 0.6 percentage points above the 5% target used by the World Health Organization and state leaders to guide reopening decisions. A lower rate signals COVID-19 is spreading at a slower pace, but people are still at risk of being exposed to the virus whenever they leave home, officials say.

“I want to make clear that our situation is improving, but it’s not in a place where we should all be comfortable to go back to life as normal,” Mecklenburg Public Health Director Gibbie Harris said during a news conference Thursday.

Mecklenburg’s positivity rate is decelerating faster than diminished testing demand, another critical signal of progress. Between Feb. 10 and Feb. 23, the positivity rate dropped by almost 36%, while the daily number of tests administered decreased by 14%, an Observer analysis shows.

“It tell us the prevailing transmission in the community is indeed dropping,” said Michael Thompson, associate chair of the Public Health Sciences department at UNC Charlotte. “We’re flirting with 5% — we’re close to the magic number we’ve been striving for.”

Harris said testing — which is widely available and free across the Charlotte area — remains a critical tool for managing the pandemic’s trajectory. People should still get tested after possible coronavirus exposures, including large gatherings, she urged this week.

‘New challenge’

Mecklenburg has logged 96,252 coronavirus cases since the start of the pandemic, the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services reported Friday. Over the last 14 days, Mecklenburg added 381 infections for every 100,000 residents.

Based on the recent case tallies, Thompson said, Mecklenburg dodged a resurgence of infections that could have been fueled by Super Bowl watch parties.

Dr. Mandy Cohen, the N.C. DHHS secretary, said coronavirus mutations — including the UK strain that’s been detected in Mecklenburg and at Davidson College — could thwart hard-fought progress.

“We face a new challenge. These new COVID-19 variants are a wildcard,” Cohen said during a Wednesday news briefing, asking people to keep wearing a mask, practicing social distancing and washing their hands. The plea is even more urgent as North Carolina and the county loosen coronavirus-related restrictions, including mass gatherings limits.

Hospitalizations

The average number of coronavirus patients requiring hospital-level care fell below 200 on Wednesday, the latest county public health data show. It’s the lowest volume, measured across a 7-day moving average, since late November — and it is nearly identical to levels observed during the July peak.

Just two weeks ago, the average hospital volume was 286 in Mecklenburg. And one month ago, it was 455, an Observer analysis finds.

Mecklenburg reached its coronavirus peak, indicating the greatest strain on medical resources, on Jan. 17, when the weekly average of hospitalizations soared to 540.

County alert: orange tier

Mecklenburg eased into the “orange” tier of the state’s county alert system this week, signaling the virus spread is now considered “substantial” — but not “critical” like it was in the red tier.

Five other Charlotte area counties saw the same improvement: Union, Cabarrus, Cleveland, Lincoln and Stanly.

Three counties — Gaston, Iredell and Rowan — are stuck in the red, based on the state’s formula that weighs the local case rate, positivity rate and hospital impact.

When the state unveiled its alert system in November, Mecklenburg landed in the yellow tier. By early December, it escalated to the orange tier, before turning red weeks later.

Vaccines by county

More than 1.3 million vaccines have been administered in North Carolina, DHHS reported as of Thursday. An additional 784,205 second doses have been given.

Here’s how counties in the Charlotte area compare, as of late Thursday. Officials warn some data can experience a 72-hour lag, and the data doesn’t incorporate vaccinations at long-term care facilities, such as nursing homes.

The data shows the percentage of the county population already vaccinated. The Charlotte region is far from herd immunity, which could require between 65% to 85% of resident to get immunized.

Mecklenburg

First doses: 9.2%

Second doses: 5.2%

Union

First doses: 9.6%

Second doses: 5.9%

Gaston

First doses: 10.7%

Second doses: 6.5%

Cabarrus

First doses: 9.3%

Second doses: 6.1%

Iredell

First doses: 11.4%

Second doses: 6.7%

Rowan

First doses: 10%

Second doses: 5.5%

Cleveland

First doses: 12.2%

Second doses: 6%

Lincoln

First doses: 10.9%

Second doses: 7%

Stanly

First doses: 11.6%

Second doses: 6.2%