‘Use good commonsense.’ Spring break could thwart Charlotte’s improving COVID trends.

Mecklenburg Public Health Director Gibbie Harris is hopeful the county could reach herd immunity by at least June, returning the Charlotte area to some degree of “normal” more than a year after the coronavirus pandemic upended daily life.

That highly-anticipated threshold, which will likely require somewhere between 65% to 85% of county residents to get immunized against COVID-19, could be gained sooner — though it depends on the availability of vaccines and the community’s willingness to get their shots, Harris told reporters Thursday.

As of late Thursday, only 8% of the county’s population is fully vaccinated, according to the latest public health data from the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services. Another 13.4% are partially vaccinated. The numbers don’t incorporate inoculations in long-term care facilities, including nursing homes.

Mecklenburg County Public Health has administered 34,615 first doses and 18,227 second doses as of Wednesday — including the Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines to people in Groups 1, 2 and 3 of the state’s prioritization framework. The rest have been administered through hospitals and health care provider clinics.

But for now, the virus is still circulating, and the health director is worried how spring break trips could spark another wave of infections, amplified by coronavirus variants, some of which are considered more contagious.

“We know what prevents the spread of the virus. Right now, that’s masking, social distancing and staying out of crowds...” Harris said. “People just need to be smart and use good commonsense, and think about not just themselves, but everybody else in our community as they decide what to do about spring break.”

Mecklenburg has recorded 98,869 cumulative cases since the start of the pandemic, N.C. DHHS reported Friday afternoon. Over the last two weeks, the county logged an average of 236 new infections for every 100,000 residents.

Positivity rate

The average COVID-19 positivity rate among Mecklenburg residents dropped to 4.6%, as of Wednesday, the latest data available. The rate is now more firmly below the 5% threshold that state leaders and the World Health Organization partially rely on to guide reopening decisions.

Better or worse: This is the consistently lowest positivity rate, measured across a 7-day moving average, observed since late September.

Just one month ago, Mecklenburg’s positivity rate was 9.2%. It skyrocketed as high as 16% in the aftermath of holiday celebrations.

Caveat: Testing demand has plummeted since Christmas and New Year’s, meaning health officials know far less about asymptomatic transmission of the virus — particularly mutated strains that are still difficult to track due to a lack of genetic sequencing infrastructure. On average, 2,600 tests are administered daily in Mecklenburg, compared to more than 3,100 at the start of March and almost 4,500 at the start of February.

Death toll

Mecklenburg officials say 896 residents have died of coronavirus-related complications as of Friday.

Demographics: The majority of deaths involved adults age 60 and older, but there have also been 13 deaths among adults ages 20 to 39 and 108 deaths among adults ages 40 to 59. Another 24 residents without any underlying health conditions have died of the virus.

The percentage of all deaths linked to COVID-19 outbreaks at long-term care facilities has dropped to 41.9% — compared more than 50% last fall. Health experts say the marked improvement is due to high vaccination rates among higher-risk elderly residents and nursing home staff. But 21 facilities remain in active outbreak status, according to the latest tally.

Hospital capacity

The average number of coronavirus patients seeking hospital-level care declined to 141 in the past week — an almost 28% decrease over the last 14 days and 50% decrease over the last month, according to a Charlotte Observer analysis of public health data.

Past spikes: Hospitalizations had soared to 540 in mid-January, compared to 198 during the July peak. At this point last month, an average of 286 patients needed care.