Is Charlotte ‘taming’ the virus? Latest COVID analysis reveals mix of hope and concern

Coronavirus-related deaths in Mecklenburg County dropped by more than 50% between February and March — an encouraging sign of progress.

Mecklenburg saw 44 virus deaths in March, an apparent tie with last May for the lowest monthly total since the COVID-19 pandemic began, according to a Charlotte Observer analysis of county health data.

Of the 913 residents lost to the virus, just under 5% died in March. About 12% of all virus deaths occurred in December, the second deadliest month.

In January, 211 people died of virus complications — or 23% of the death toll.

But as coronavirus case tallies once again climb in Charlotte, health experts worry that a third surge of infections could balloon by late April after families and congregations gather together in person for springtime holidays like Easter.

It shouldn’t be as devastating as the post-Christmas peak, when the seven-day moving average of daily hospitalizations skyrocketed to 540, experts told the Observer in interviews this week. And it may fall lower than the Independence Day-induced peak, when hospitalizations hovered just below 200.

”If we’re lucky, we’ll continue to see this subside and peter out (in) a small wave,” said Michael Thompson, associate chair of the Public Health Sciences Department at UNC Charlotte. “The real proof is what will happen if there’s an Easter surge.”

COVID vaccines at work

Vaccines are already protecting the most at-risk populations, who were prioritized earlier this year. Yet a sizable number of Charlotte residents are still susceptible to contracting the dominant coronavirus strain or mutated versions, including the United Kingdom variant, that spread more easily from person to person.

”What you’re seeing is sort of the taming of the virus in a way, meaning the vaccine is removing the ability of the virus to be able to cause serious disease, hospitalization and death,” said Dr. Amesh Adalja, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “The vaccines are almost 100% effective against hospitalizations. In a fully vaccinated person, that’s where the vaccines really excel.”

As of late Wednesday, 18.7% of Mecklenburg’s population was at least partially vaccinated and 12.8% was fully vaccinated, according to state public health data. The percentages don’t include vaccines administered in nursing homes and other long-term care facilities.

Hospital capacity

The seven-day moving average of hospitalizations in Mecklenburg dropped below 110 on Wednesday, the latest data available from county health officials show. That’s the lowest average logged since October, and Adalja said it signals the start of a new pattern: Hospitalizations should no longer rise in lockstep with cases, thanks to the arrival of vaccines.

Lower hospital capacity, in turn, gives policymakers and Gov. Roy Cooper more flexibility to ease coronavirus-related restrictions. But as the data landscape shifts, some epidemiologists are still worried about what the next few weeks may hold.

”We’re definitely not doing more in terms of social distancing and mask wearing. We’re probably slipping a lot,” Thompson said.

Over spring break, he said, “reckless and irresponsible behavior can be a threat” to public health. Mecklenburg County has issued a travel advisory urging residents to stay home over spring break.

Coronavirus variants

Rachel Graham, a coronavirus researcher at UNC Chapel Hill, lamented there is still not sufficient surveillance of variants, with some mutations believed to be highly contagious.

In Mecklenburg alone, Public Health Director Gibbie Harris said the United Kingdom and California strains have been detected — but the scope and source of infection, such as travel, are an open question.

”We are still dealing with a quantity that is very unknown,” said Graham, an associate professor at the Gillings School of Global Public Health. “I think the black boxes of how these variants are emerging is one of the biggest obstacles.”

There’s an important silver lining: Recent studies show vaccinations also offer protection against the variants. But unfettered spread could spur more mutations that may evade vaccines.

Rising caseload, positivity rate

Some of Charlotte’s key metrics are on the rise again, after weeks of decline and stabilization.

Mecklenburg’s positivity rate rose to 6.7% in the past week. That’s an almost 25% increase over the last two weeks, and the number is above the 5% threshold leaders partially rely on to guide reopening decisions.

The positivity rate is rising faster than the rate of COVID-19 tests administered. On average, 2,500 tests were administered daily among Mecklenburg residents within the past week — which is roughly the same value seen since mid-March.

“Clearly, you’re not testing enough,” Adalja said. “There are cases being missed, and I think that increasing testing will give you much better control because you’ll be able identify more individuals that might be leading to spread in the community.”

Mecklenburg has logged 102,987 cases since the start of the pandemic, the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services reported Thursday afternoon. On average, the county is adding roughly 240 new cases each day — compared to 140 in mid-March.

This story was originally published April 1, 2021 at 2:43 PM.