When will leaves change color in NC mountains? Map shows best time to see fall foliage
North Carolina’s trees are still coated in lush shades of green as the waning days of summer approach — but not for much longer.
The leaves could start to change in the far reaches of Western North Carolina as soon as Labor Day, according to the 2021 Fall Foliage Prediction Map released annually by SmokyMountains.com. But the map’s week-by-week prediction indicates peak fall foliage for most mountain towns won’t arrive until October.
How soon leaves turn their signature shades of yellow, red and orange depends on a variety of factors, according to the National Park Service.
“In a park that is nearly 470 miles long and varies over 5,000 feet in elevation from its highest peaks down to the foothills, there is no simple formula for predicting fall color,” NPS said of fall colors on the Blue Ridge Parkway. “The intensity of fall color and time of peak color vary and are determined by complex environmental factors, as well as the genetic makeup of the plants themselves.”
Trees at higher elevations could start developing fall colors as soon as late September.
The science behind leaves changing
Most leaves will change color throughout October — “starting early in the month on the highest peaks and progressing down the mountainsides into the lower elevations as the month passes,” according to the park service.
Leaves maintain their green hue as long as they are producing chlorophyll, the pigment involved with the process of converting sunlight into glucose, according to SmokyMountains.com. As the days get shorter, chlorophyll production slows to a grinding halt, “eventually giving way to the ‘true’ color of the leaf.”
The days have been getting shorter since the Summer Solstice on June 20, with the shortest day of the year slated for Dec. 21 — otherwise known as the Winter Solstice, the Farmer’s Almanac reports.
Fall will arrive smack dab in the middle, on Sept. 22.
2021 fall foliage predictions
According to this year’s map, “minimal” and “patchy” leaf changes are expected in far Western North Carolina as soon as Sept. 13.
That will shift to “partial” changes by Sept. 27, and a few counties will reach near-peak levels of fall colors around the same time.
But peak fall foliage won’t arrive in most mountain towns until Oct. 11 — just as the foothills and Piedmont region hit near-peak. Those towns will transition past-peak around Oct. 18 as the foothills and Piedmont region reach peak fall colors.
Most coastal counties in North Carolina, meanwhile, won’t experience peak fall foliage until Nov. 1.
The 2021 predictions are largely in line with previous years. In 2020, the majority of Western North Carolina was expected to be at or near peak fall foliage between Oct. 5 and Oct. 12. The year before that, the peak was slated to arrive closer to Nov. 2.
Experts warned in 2019 that unseasonably high temperatures and a lack of rainfall could delay the leaves changing.
This story was originally published August 31, 2021 at 12:57 PM.
