Denny Hamlin has done everything in NASCAR but win a championship. Is now the time?
For Joey Logano, the 2020 NASCAR season is shaping up a lot like 2018.
“Feeling like you’re the favorite by winning the first race in the third round,” Logano said ahead of the final race of the year. “I honestly feel that way again.”
For his teammate, Brad Keselowski, the season could end with a nod to the past. He said he’s packing a massive Miller Lite glass to chug beer from if he makes it to the championship stage, as he did in 2012.
“My wife has told me that she will prepare the glass as long as I promise to drink responsibly,” Keselowski said.
But for the final returning Championship 4 driver, there are no references to past title-winning experiences. That memory has yet to be made for Denny Hamlin.
“I’m one of those Stanley Cup guys where I don’t like to touch the trophy before you actually win it, so I’ve never actually touched a NASCAR Cup Series championship trophy,” Hamlin said. “I want to be able to touch it.”
There are arguments for each of this year’s contending drivers to take it all; Chase Elliott is making his first Championship 4 appearance, but has the momentum of a win at Martinsville. Logano has the preparation time and experience. Keselowski has the proven car.
RESULTS: NASCAR Xfinity championship at Phoenix
RESULTS: NASCAR Truck Series championship at Phoenix
Hamlin has the motivation of being in this position before — winning races all season, advancing to the finale and coming up short. A slight shoulder chip could be the edge the No. 11 Toyota driver needs to cap a seven-win season with a final victory Sunday. The race marks Hamlin’s third appearance in the Championship 4 in his 14-year Cup career.
Last season, Hamlin earned six wins with crew chief Chris Gabehart to advance to the final round for the first time since 2014. He came off a clutch win at Phoenix in the Round of 8 elimination race and started on the pole for the championship race at Miami-Homestead, but a slow car led to the team’s aggressive application of tape on the grille in a late attempt to find speed. The tape caused Hamlin’s car to overheat and he made an unscheduled pit stop with 45 laps left. He finished 10th.
“I’m not concerned with making those same issues again,” Gabehart said. “I can tell you we’ve learned from them. For better or worse, we’re going to put our best foot forward.”
This year, the No. 11 team is seeking to bookend the season the same way it started at Daytona: With a win. Hamlin said that it will take “execution and a fast car” but noted that there are “no guarantees.”
Experience has taught him that much. Kevin Harvick’s postseason exit after a dismal day at Martinsville served as another stunning reminder that a driver can win nine races in a season and still miss the championship event in a format that favors most recent performance.
Although frustrated with past results, Hamlin seems at peace with the process. After 44 career Cup wins and three Daytona 500 victories, a series title has become somewhat of a waiting game for the driver on the verge of his 40th birthday. He’s the best active driver without a championship.
“I’m a numbers guy,” Hamlin said. “I like the law of averages. If I just keep putting myself in that Final Four, eventually things will fall my way.”
Phoenix has been a historically strong track for Hamlin, with two wins and 13 top-fives at the one-mile tri-oval, but those finishes came using a different aero package than the one teams are running this year. He’s also had a recent string of sub-par finishes, not placing higher than ninth since his win at Talladega. Still, it’s a race without a clear favorite and his chances are as good as the others.
It could even be a non-championship driver that’s a factor in the final race. Harvick is favored to win this weekend in some sports betting pools and Hamlin said he expects the No. 4 team to come loaded and ready to prove they should be in Victory Lane.
“I don’t expect him to waffle around and just kind of let all four of us go race for it,” Hamlin said. “My guess, if I had to predict, it would be that those guys are going to feel vindictive and want to go out there and beat up on everybody.”
Hamlin said he’s had conversations with Harvick throughout the week to talk about the season that pitted the two teams against each other and to commiserate about the format that’s separately stumped them both.
“I understand their pain,” Hamlin said. “I mean it easily could have been the other way around, right?”
But Hamlin said that Harvick not being a Championship 4 driver won’t change his motivation or feeling of achievement if he’s able to win his first title. When asked what that win would take, team owner Joe Gibbs joked that they’ve been struggling with that question for 16 years.
Retired Cup driver Dale Earnhardt Jr. predicted confidence will be the difference-maker in a race so evenly matched, and he feels Logano has the upper-hand in that department. But while the Team Penske drivers know the feeling of championship success, Hamlin’s familiarity with championship failure could be his advantage.
“I’ve had so many failures that it’s created a logbook of things that I need to be aware of this time around,” Hamlin said. “Certainly I believe that there’s something to being older and the mental side of things, and having that advantage.”
If that advantage does pan out and fate is kind to Hamlin this Sunday, then it very well could be his time to hoist a championship trophy. He said he’s proud of the season regardless.
“This is a great accomplishment for our team,” Hamlin said. “And we’re obviously very worthy of the championship if we do get it done.”
How to watch the NASCAR race Sunday in Phoenix
The Cup Series championship, the Season Finale 500, is 3 p.m. Sunday and will be broadcast on NBC. You can stream the race online at NBCSports.com with a valid cable or satellite subscription.
This story was originally published November 8, 2020 at 6:30 AM.
