Tua or Justin Herbert? Evaluating how the Panthers can rebuild in the 2020 NFL Draft
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Expanded coverage of Carolina’s Week 17 loss to New Orleans
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The Carolina Panthers’ loss to the Indianapolis Colts caused a big shift.
Not in the locker room or in terms of the trajectory of the 2019 season, but with the help of the loss in Indianapolis, the Panthers moved up two places in the draft order from No. 10 to No. 8.
Even if it were to win Sunday against the New Orleans Saints, it’s unlikely that Carolina will pick outside of the top 10 of the draft, which means that there are plenty of options with what they can do with their pick. The highest pick Carolina can get is sixth, but even if they were to slide just outside of the top 10, a lot of top talent would still be available.
What the Panthers do April 23 will depend on what’s next for quarterback Cam Newton. The health of Newton is a question mark, both in terms of how he recovers from foot surgery and how his shoulder looks after time away. And as tight end Greg Olsen acknowledged Friday, there is a lot more outside of the quarterback position for this team to decide this offseason. And many of the people making those decisions haven’t been hired yet, including Carolina’s next head coach and assistant general manager/vice president of football operations.
Although we might not know all of the decision-makers or all of the factors, we’re going to take a look at what awaits the Panthers this offseason and what their options might be.
Positions of need: OL, DL, QB (?), DB
If the Panthers move on from Cam:
The Panthers might not have Newton healthy until around the draft or after it in late April. They will likely have to make the best possible decision about his health without getting the full picture. Team owner David Tepper has said a healthy Newton is someone he wants around the team.
But would Newton will be willing to play out the last year of his contract without an extension? That’s a tough ask of a quarterback to do with his injury history, but it also would be difficult for Carolina to grant him that extension for the same reason.
Kyle Allen did not show enough consistency this season to be the full-time starter next year, and Will Grier will have only played two come Sunday’s kickoff. There’s a reason he was behind Allen for most of the season, and it’s not just so he could grow on the scout team.
If Newton leaves, the Panthers will have to trade for a quarterback, sign a veteran free agent while awaiting someone like Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence in the 2021 draft, or draft a quarterback with that top-10 pick.
Picking someone in the draft seems the most likely because if the Panthers are starting over, Tepper isn’t the type to want to wait through another losing season before landing his quarterback to build a team around. Unfortunately, LSU Heisman-winner Joe Burrow won’t be dropping to the Panthers, but there are options in the draft:
QB Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama): Once considered the top pick in the draft, Tagovailoa’s stock has dropped due to the devastating hip injury he suffered this season. The junior has not announced if he will be entering the 2020 draft, but with the rise of Burrow and the injury, he could be available for the Panthers if he forgoes his final college season. He could be worth taking a risk on despite the injury.
QB Justin Herbert (Oregon): Herbert has been an up-and-down prospect with some analysts viewing him as a top-10 pick and others not thinking much of him. He completed 66.7 percent of his passes for 3,333 yards, 32 touchdowns and five interceptions this season. If the Panthers are looking for a quarterback who will be ready to go Week 1, he will likely still be available when they pick.
QB Jason Eason (Washington): Another Pac-12 candidate, Eason announced last week that he would leaving college early. He won the starting job with the Huskies in camp after transferring from Georgia, and threw for 3,132 yards, 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions this year. Most experts him as a top-five quarterback in the draft.
If Newton stays with the Panthers:
In the world that Newton does stay, which he has expressed desire in doing, then it seems more likely that Olsen will also be on the team based on his Friday comments and their chemistry on the field.
The team will also have a better chance of attracting free agents or potentially re-signing some of the significant number of defensive players whose contracts expire this year.
Why? Because it will be less likely that the Panthers will be a rebuilding team. With an often injured soon-to-be 31-year old quarterback, time is of the essence.
However, cornerback James Bradberry, who has quietly had a great season, could still be on his way out. A free agent this offseason, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he gets more money elsewhere.
In this case, the Panthers won’t be looking to the future yet, but instead trying to start the culture of success Tepper has so often talked about with a quarterback that has been around the organization for nine years.
Here’s what their draft could look like in that case:
CB Jeff Okudah (Ohio State): Considered the top corner in the 2020 class, Okudah would be a huge get for the Panthers if he does choose to enter the draft as a junior. When throwing in his direction, opposing passers have a rating of 54.9. He has everything a team would want in a top-tier corner.
DE/DT Derrick Brown (Auburn): Gerald McCoy could be on the way out after his one year with the Panthers (part of the reason he signed in Carolina was to play for now-fired coach Ron Rivera), and Brown could be a great fit. He tracked as a top-five pick in the 2019 draft had he declared early. Early reports indicate he has a ton of upside. The Panthers could certainly use some run defense help.
OT Andrew Thomas (Georgia): The Panthers’ offensive line has not been great this year. It seems crazy to draft another offensive tackle after trading up to select Greg Little in the second-round last year, but the line needs to be reshuffled and Thomas could help with that. Not only has he been strong in pass protection, but he has done well in the run game, a key in any offense that features Christian McCaffrey.
The Panthers have only drafted two quarterbacks since 2011, Newton and Grier. Drafting another in back-to-back years would be unprecedented, but also show a shift toward a true rebuild. Either way, the Panthers will have a significantly different look and feel in the first season of the new decade.
This story was originally published December 29, 2019 at 6:00 AM.
