‘A big sacrifice.’ Scaled-down Thanksgiving, Black Friday can slow COVID-19 in Charlotte

Public health workers are still dealing with the accelerated spread of COVID-19 in Charlotte due to Halloween and are hoping people will heed warnings to avoid gatherings on Thanksgiving and shopping crowds on Black Friday.

“We understand fully that this is a big sacrifice that we all have to make ourselves,” Mecklenburg County Deputy Public Health Director Raynard Washington said during a news conference Friday, as he urged families to limit celebrations to household members only, saying the risk was “simply too great” to gather.

Similarly, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention this week issued a warning about travel, advising Americans that it’s best to stay home for the holiday.

All of Mecklenburg County’s coronavirus metrics are moving in the wrong direction, edging closer to levels recorded in July when the region saw its COVID-19 peak.

There’s been a 23% increase in COVID-19 cases over the last two weeks, Washington told reporters, adding that the county will likely surpass a cumulative total of 40,000 cases by the end of the day.

“For context, it took us just about 10 weeks to get from 20,000 cases to 30,000 cases,” Washington said. “And we’ve gone from 30,000 cases — which will be 40,000 today — in just six weeks.”

As of Friday afternoon, there have been 431 local deaths attributed to the coronavirus.

The average number of new cases per day has been increasing steadily since late September. Mecklenburg’s positivity rate, now at 8.7%, climbed throughout October.

Washington said social gatherings are contributing to the spread of the virus. That includes about 30 Halloween parties, he said, which contact tracers are still working.

The rising case tally, positivity rate and hospitalizations all come as public health officials are bracing for a deluge of infections tied to Thanksgiving. Washington pleaded with the public to avoid large gatherings, find virtual options to make celebrations safer, and to proactively get tested for COVID-19.

The average positivity rate — which measures the percentage of COVID-19 tests that return positive results — exceeds a 5% threshold from the state and World Health Organization when contemplating relaxing or tightening coronavirus restrictions.

In the first half of November, the positivity rate fluctuated dramatically across ZIP codes in Mecklenburg, according to a new map from the health department. Only three ZIP codes recorded positivity rates below 5%. Meanwhile, 21 ZIP codes logged rates between 5 and 10%, and six ZIP codes were above 10%, according to a Charlotte Observer analysis.

The average number of people needing hospital-level care in Mecklenburg reached 180 in the past week — a volume last logged in late July. Washington said hospital capacity remains stable for now, with both Atrium Health and Novant Health reporting availability of healthcare workers, as well as beds and ventilators despite the “elevated” demand for services.

The average length of hospital stays are now shorter — typically around three to four days, compared to 10 days earlier in the pandemic. Washington said that’s partially due earlier coronavirus diagnoses and better treatment options.

Charlotte Mayor Vi Lyles on Friday also urged residents to work together to keep loved ones and the community safe.

“We must recognize that this Thanksgiving will be unlike any other in our lifetime,” Lyles said in a video on her Twitter account. There is a real concern about what our family gatherings could mean for our public health.

COVID-19 vaccine on the way

In a new county COVID-19 alert system rolled out this week, Mecklenburg and 46 other counties were pegged in the “yellow” zone. The lowest tier reflects “significant” community spread, and residents are urged to adhere to basic coronavirus safeguards, including wearing a mask, avoiding non-essential travel, participating in contact tracing and getting a flu shot, among a slew of recommendations.

But if daily cases and positivity rate continues to increase, county manager Dena Diorio said she expects Mecklenburg could move into the orange zone.

For months, officials have declined to specify a turning point in Mecklenburg’s COVID-19 metrics that may trigger additional restrictions, such as another stay-at-home order or ban on indoor dining.

“We are considering all options, as always,” Washington said. “Until we get to a point where the virus spread is under more control, we just need our residents to do the right thing — to look out for our neighbors, and care for our neighbors, and stay home.”

Future decisions, Washington said, would be based on data showing where the virus is spreading and how people are becoming infected. There hasn’t been “a great deal of transmission” connected to in-person learning at Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools, he said.

Ten counties, including Gaston, are designated red in the state’s alert system, meaning those areas have the most severe viral spread and are most likely to strain hospital resources.

Even as COVID-19 levels rise across the state, Charlotte-area hospitals have signaled some good news — they’re ready to distribute a coronavirus vaccine as soon as one is available.

That could be as soon as this year. Two companies, Pfizer and Moderna, have announced they expect to file for approval with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration within days or weeks, respectively.

North Carolina’s Department of Health and Human Services has drafted a coronavirus vaccine distribution plan, which prioritizes vaccinations for health care workers and people at high risk for coronavirus-related complications.

This story was originally published November 20, 2020 at 12:35 PM.