As Charlotte’s COVID-19 trends worsen, doctors share how to stay safe this Thanksgiving

Mecklenburg County’s coronavirus conditions steadily deteriorated over the last month, bringing the bleak prospect of another deadly wave of infections into sharper focus.

Crucial metrics — including the new daily caseload, COVID-19 test positivity rate and hospitalizations — are all moving in the wrong direction, local health officials said Friday.

The raging pandemic, which is already causing surges in rural regions of the state, has now taken a firmer hold in Mecklenburg and thwarted only short-lived stability, the latest public health data show.

Worrisome trends could soon be exacerbated by Thanksgiving celebrations, especially if people forgo basic coronavirus safeguards — like wearing a mask and social distancing — around friends and extended family, officials fear. Summer festivities surrounding Memorial Day and July 4 led to soaring case tallies, though Mecklenburg avoided a highly anticipated coronavirus peak after Labor Day.

“We’ve got to stay vigilant,” Mecklenburg Public Health Director Gibbie Harris said earlier this week.

The county’s average positivity rate, which measures the percentage of COVID-19 tests that come back positive, rose to 7.5% in the past week, officials said. Two weeks ago, that number was 6.2% among county residents.

As recently as mid-October, the positivity rate hovered below 5%, a key benchmark from the state and World Health Organization to guide reopening decisions. An elevated rate signals the virus is circulating more rapidly in a community, making it harder for health departments to use contact tracing and other prevention methods to quell potential outbreaks.

On Wednesday, the number of people needing intensive hospital care in Mecklenburg reached 165, the highest volume recorded since August. Hospitalizations are considered a lagging indicator in the pandemic, reflecting the scope of infections locally from several weeks ago as people contracted the virus and later developed complications.

Over the past week, hospitalizations averaged 150, or about 50 fewer patients than levels recorded in July as the region saw its greatest strain on hospital resources to date.

The local death toll was 417 as of Friday evening, with just over half of all fatalities linked to outbreaks at long-term care facilities, such as nursing homes.

Thanksgiving safety tips

Mecklenburg has logged almost 38,000 coronavirus cases since the start of the pandemic, the latest data from the state health department shows.

Infections here have nearly doubled over the past month, a growth that’s far outpacing the amount of COVID-19 tests administered, a Charlotte Observer analysis of public health data found. Private indoor gatherings are fueling the bulk of new coronavirus cases, local and state health officials say.

Thanksgiving traditions must adjust to the ongoing realities of the COVID-19 pandemic, Gov. Roy Cooper said earlier this week as he reduced indoor gathering limits from 25 to 10. (It is unclear whether Mecklenburg will implement stricter coronavirus regulations, though several county commissioners are worried a new stay-at-home order could be inevitable.)

Before any type of Thanksgiving gathering, Novant Health infectious disease specialist David Priest said, people should try to hunker down as much as possible. In an ideal world, that means quarantining for as long as 14 days, based on the incubation period of COVID-19.

The goal, Priest said, is for people to limit possible exposure to the virus — before they may unknowingly infect others, including loved ones with underlying chronic illnesses.

“This is a highly contagious virus, and it doesn’t discriminate,” Priest said. “If you’re putting yourself in situations where you’re in close quarters with people and not taking precautions, you’re really raising your risk.”

To further minimize risk, plan to host Thanksgiving dinner outside — and keep the guest list small, Atrium Health infectious disease specialist Dr. Katie Passaretti said.

“I hate to sound like Scrooge, but the best way to keep everyone safe is not having bigger group gatherings,” Passaretti said. “That really needs to be the primary message. It’s just going to be tricky.”

Seeking a COVID-19 test is another critical prevention strategy, and it is best used about three to four days ahead of holiday travel, said Dr. Mandy Cohen, the N.C. DHHS secretary. More Thanksgiving guidance should be released soon, she and Harris have said.

But a negative test result — reflecting a single point in time for a person who could later contract COVID-19 or test positive with a greater viral load days later — is not a substitute for other common-sense guidelines.

“Don’t assume you’re out of the woods because you have one negative test,” Priest said. “Tests are not perfect, particularly early on in the illness. Don’t use it as a pass to do whatever activities you want to do.”

This story was originally published November 13, 2020 at 4:06 PM.