Another COVID-19 lockdown a ‘hard sell’ in Charlotte despite data showing worse spread

The average number of people in Mecklenburg County diagnosed with COVID-19 each day has nearly doubled over the last month. While more restrictions may be needed to slow the spread of the virus Public Health Director Gibbie Harris says that would be “a really hard sell in our community.”

The ability of health officials to test more people only partially explains the latest increase in coronavirus cases. Over the last 30 days, the number of tests given to Mecklenburg residents has increased by about 20% compared to the 30 days prior. In that same time frame, cases among county residents rose by more than 115%, according to a Charlotte Observer analysis of publicly-available health data.

Harris said Tuesday she doesn’t have the individual authority to enact a stay-at-home order, intended to encourage social distancing and limit close interactions in public.

Early on in the pandemic, elected officials in Mecklenburg enacted tougher rules than those ordered statewide, including a local stay-at-home order and late-night alcohol curfew.

But the county has also struggled to attain consensus across all six towns and Charlotte for additional emergency measures, making the prospects of more stringent actions unlikely, Harris and commissioners’ chairman George Dunlap indicated this week.

Mayors in cities and towns have the authority to introduce curfews and take other preventive public health measures. For now, the county is following restrictions outlined under North Carolina’s phased reopening plan.

Still, Harris said, no potential coronavirus restrictions should be “off the table.”

Trends in data show the spread of COVID-19 in the Charlotte area worsening in recent weeks — a marked change from late summer when statistics showed a slightly improved situation.

On Tuesday, state health officials recorded 380 new infections in Mecklenburg, the largest single-day increase in new cases since July’s peak. On Wednesday, Mecklenburg added 318 more infections.

“If things get a lot worse, I think we have to be willing to consider any option that we need to, to manage this situation,” Harris said.

“Nobody has a crystal ball. We’re watching what’s happening around us, and we’re recognizing that could happen here,” she added.

COVID-19 trends

All of Mecklenburg’s coronavirus trends — including the new daily caseload, positivity rate and hospitalizations — are steadily increasing, much as health officials anticipated heading into colder weather.

Mecklenburg’s positivity rate averaged 7% in the past week, compared to 4.5% at this time last month, the latest county health data shows. State leaders and the World Health Organization use a 5% benchmark to help guide reopening decisions, including a return to in-person learning. A lower percentage indicates there is less community spread of the virus.

Over the last two weeks, an average of 235 new cases have been reported each day in Mecklenburg, a Charlotte Observer analysis of N.C. Department of Health and Human Services data shows. That volume has almost doubled over the last month. It’s still far below the infection rate Mecklenburg recorded in July, when the county saw its greatest strain on hospital resources to date.

The health director’s update to county commissioners came just hours after Gov. Roy Cooper on Tuesday announced North Carolina would remain paused in Phase Three of reopening through Dec. 4. Indoor gatherings limits have been reduced from 25 people to 10.

“Our trends have avoided spikes, but they remain stubbornly high — and that’s troubling,” Cooper said in a news conference. “We need to focus on bringing our numbers down. We know how to do it: Wear a mask, wash your hands and wait six feet apart.”

Holidays and related social events are particularly problematic for containing the virus in Charlotte.

It’s too early to know how conditions could deteriorate during Thanksgiving, when indoor gatherings among friends and family might lead to a surge in infections, experts told The Charlotte Observer.

Harris said the health department is monitoring COVID-19 cases linked to nine Halloween parties, ranging from “very small” celebrations to gatherings of more than 100 people. At one party, a 12 year old and a 16 year old contracted the virus, she said.

Harris said such gatherings are now the main source of COVD-19 exposure and transmission.

Mecklenburg’s largest coronavirus outbreak to date resulted in at least 208 confirmed cases, Harris disclosed Tuesday. Convocation events at the United House of Prayer for All People on Beatties Ford Road last month have now claimed nine lives, with another fatality under investigation. That includes eight Mecklenburg residents and one Gaston County resident.

At least 11 people were hospitalized following the church events. The full scope of infections among attendees, sprawling across the country, is not being tracked by local officials, Harris previously told reporters. Still, Mecklenburg has notified health departments in California, Georgia, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, South Carolina and Washington, D.C.

The county has logged 37,162 cumulative cases since the start of the pandemic in March. That’s a rate of 335 infections for every 10,00 residents, according to N.C. DHHS. And 411 county residents have died of coronavirus-related complications, Harris said Tuesday.

A rise in hospitalizations trails several weeks behind a jump in COVID-19 cases, medical experts say. The average number of people requiring hospital-level care in Mecklenburg over the past week was 141, Harris said. In mid-October, the volume was below 100.

“Our hospitals are working hard to make sure that they’re staffed up and have revisited their plans for surge capacity,” Harris said. “Right now, they’re feeling fairly comfortable where they are.”

This story was originally published November 11, 2020 at 10:28 AM.