Not yet in pandemic ‘end zone’ but Charlotte COVID caseload is stable, officials say

Mecklenburg County’s daily coronavirus caseload appears to be stabilizing but residents are still at risk of contracting the virus even as vaccinations climb in the Charlotte area.

The county has been logging more than 170 new cases each day on average over the past week, the latest state public health data show. That compares to a daily average of 150 last week, though it is too early to determine whether this an emerging growth trend.

Generally, the number of new infections has been falling since a peak at the start of the year.

Mecklenburg Public Health Director Gibbie Harris on Thursday said there’s significant improvement from January, when the county’s daily caseload soared beyond 900. But if the latest number doesn’t drop further, Mecklenburg’s plateau will exceed the caseload observed in mid-October — roughly 130 infections, measured across a 7-day moving average — as the region saw a brief period of stability.

Harris and others say the pandemic is far from over.

“We cannot afford to keep having this many cases because the longer we have this steady rate, the more time we are giving the virus to come up with new mutations for which our vaccines might not be effective,” said Melinda Forthofer, a UNC Charlotte public health professor.

“We need to get the case count lower so there’s not the opportunity at all. Mutation can only occur when you have a case.”

People must stay vigilant and follow coronavirus safeguards during spring break, Harris emphasized during a Thursday news conference. Lax behavior and travel could reverse hard-fought progress in slowing the virus’ spread, the health director has said.

“Traveling does present additional increase of risk of exposure to individuals while they’re away, but it also brings that back to our community,” Harris said. “When you go traveling or even out in our community, those public health measures — masking, social distancing — continue to be very important.”

Harris said people should get tested for COVID-19 within three to five days of returning home from a trip — and they should quarantine at home for seven days. If people opt out of testing after travel, they should plan to quarantine at home for 10 days.

Coronavirus trends

The county’s positivity rate is below 5% for now, meeting a crucial target from the state and World Health Organization that is partially used to guide reopening decisions.

Hospitalizations have also plummeted after a January surge, though the volume is still nearly 1.7 times as high as the fall plateau when less than 90 patients on average required intensive care, according to county health data.

Health experts predict hospitalizations should stay low as more residents get vaccinated and face diminished risk of developing serious coronavirus-related complications. That, in turn, will prevent more community deaths, Forthofer said.

“We should see a drop in case fatality — that should be very obvious this summer,” Forthofer said. “I think you should start seeing that before we reach herd immunity.”

Mecklenburg surpassed 900 deaths on Monday, health officials said. The county has recorded 99,894 coronavirus cases since the start of the pandemic, the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services reported Thursday morning.

As of late Wednesday, 9.2% of Mecklenburg residents have been fully vaccinated and 14.9% are partially vaccinated. The figures don’t incorporate vaccinations in long-term care facilities, including nursing homes.

Novant Health infectious diseases specialist Dr. David Priest said Charlotte has not yet reached the “end zone” of the pandemic. Loosening restrictions prematurely could lead to another wave of cases, Priest warned this week.

“That’s the last thing we want to happen as we get closer to the new normal,” Priest told reporters Tuesday. “It’d really be tragic for someone to get COVID or certainly die from COVID right as vaccine supplies are arriving — where there will be enough vaccine for everyone.”

COVID variants in NC

North Carolina has seen at least 70 cases of the United Kingdom variant and three cases of the South African variant, according to new data this week from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. So far, there’s no known cases of the Brazilian variant in North Carolina.

In South Carolina, the CDC reports 27 cases of the UK variant and 44 cases of the South African variants, with no known samples of the Brazilian variant.

The CDC warns these mutated strains could be more contagious and lead to severe disease.

Health officials lack the infrastructure to sequence most positive COVID-19 test samples and detect potential variants, making it difficult to pinpoint the exact case tally and growth rate in the Charlotte area. Harris said discussions are underway with the state and healthcare partners about expanding surveillance testing.

“As the variants become more prevalent, we could potentially see numbers going back up,” Harris said. “I’m hoping not...We want things to continue to open up and be available. And we want people to be able to work, and we want children to be able to go to school, so we need everybody’s help with this right now.”

Last month, MAKO Medical Laboratories identified just 10 cases of the UK variant in North Carolina but none from the South African strain. The lab also reported one case of the UK variant in South Carolina, plus 11 cases of the South African variant.

To complicate matters, the number of tests administered daily in Mecklenburg has declined drastically since Christmas, which could create blindspots in tracking coronavirus trends and spotting outbreaks early, health experts say.

On average, roughly 2,600 tests were run last week in the county, according to the latest public health data. That compares to about 3,600 tests mid-February, 5,100 in mid-January and 4,800 in mid-December.

Testing continues to be widely available and free across Mecklenburg, Harris said. Residents should get tested if they are experiencing possible coronavirus symptoms or were potentially exposed to the virus.

This story was originally published March 18, 2021 at 1:30 PM.