Can Duke basketball win it all? Here’s the Blue Devils’ path to NCAA Tournament title

Duke enters the NCAA Tournament looking like a monster with a non-stop ticket to San Antonio for the Final Four.

Ranked No. 1 in the AP poll and owning the No. 2 overall seed in the 68-team field, the Blue Devils (31-3) have only lost once since Thanksgiving and own one of the best KenPom efficiency ratings of all time.

Duke’s current efficiency is 38.15, the nation’s highest since the 2001 Blue Devils ended the season, with an NCAA championship, at 37.32. The only team with a higher KenPom efficiency at time of the year? Duke’s 1999 team that went 37-2 and finished with a 43.01 efficiency.

Those Blue Devils were upset by Connecticut in the NCAA tournament final.

All of this is to say that, while this is a historically good Duke basketball team, there’s no guarantee a national championship will be captured.

That is what makes college basketball in March — and early April — so fun.

So what does Duke’s possible path to a championship look like? The East Region includes a team that made last season’s Final Four (Alabama) plus the Big Ten tournament runner-up (Wisconsin). No. 4 seed Arizona is No. 14 nationally, according to KenPom, and even No. 5 seed Oregon has impressive wins over Alabama, Texas A&M, Wisconsin and Maryland this season.

That’s all before the tournament pares down to the Final Four at the Alamodome in San Antonio.

So here’s a probable look at how Duke’s road to the Final Four might go:

First round

The Blue Devils will be heavy favorites over either American (22-12) or Mount St. Mary’s (22-12) when they play at 2:50 p.m. on Friday at Lenovo Center. Those two No. 16 seeds play Wednesday night at the First Four in Dayton for the right to face Duke.

While Duke has an all-time great KenPom rating, each of those teams has a negative rating in that efficiency system. Of course, the Blue Devils have lost to double-digit seeds in the NCAA Tournament before, including in 2014 when No. 14 seed Mercer knocked Duke out in this very arena in Raleigh.

But this Duke team looks more than capable of handling a No. 16.

Second round

Winning on Friday would earn Duke a game in Sunday’s second round at Lenovo Center against either No. 8 seed Mississippi State (21-12) or No. 9 seed Baylor (19-14).

The focus will be on Baylor, of course, because the Bears have a graduate student guard named Jeremy Roach in their starting lineup. Roach played the last four seasons at Duke, helping the Blue Devils to the 2022 Final Four in coach Mike Krzyzewski’s final season.

Another name familiar to ACC fans, former Miami big man Norchad Omier, mans the post for Baylor. Omier also has Final Four experience with the Miami Hurricanes in 2023.

Mississippi State started the year red hot, winning 14 of its first 15 games. But the Bulldogs haven’t won more than two games in a row since early January, and they only won back-to-back games once during that time.

Whoever wins 8-9 matchup figures to be a double-digit underdog against Duke.

Sweet 16

If things run according to the seeds, Duke will play either Arizona (22-12) or Oregon (24-9) in the East Regional semifinals at Newark’s Prudential Center.

The Blue Devils already own a head-to-head win over Arizona this season, having defeated the Wildcats (and former North Carolina guard Caleb Love), 69-55, in Tucson, back on Nov. 22.

Of course, that’s unless No. 13 seed Akron, a trendy upset pick, makes a surprise Sweet 16 run. The Zips (22-12) have plenty of 3-point shooters and make 36.6% of them as a team. That’s No. 49 nationally. So watch out for them.

Oregon could be the call here, though. Dana Altman coached the Ducks to the Final Four in 2017 and has made the Sweet 16 twice since (2019, 2021).

Elite Eight

The matchup many want to see is Alabama against Duke in the East Regional final. The Crimson Tide (25-8), like Duke, owns a win over the tournament’s top seed, Auburn, this season.

Seniors Mark Sears, a 6-1 guard, and Grant Nelson, a 6-11 center, started for Alabama’s Final Four team last season. The Tide brings 6-11 sophomore Jarin Stevenson, a Chapel Hill native who also contributed to last season’s March run, off the bench.

Seniors Chris Youngblood, a 6-4 guard and Clifford Omoruyi, also start, giving coach Nate Oats an experienced, accomplished group. Duke counters with its star freshmen in Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach but has experience in graduate student Sion James and junior Tyrese Proctor.

It would be a fascinating matchup if it comes to be.

If not? Maybe No. 3 seed Wisconsin (26-9) makes it through. Or how about No. 6 seed BYU (24-9)? The hot-shooting Cougars are No. 7 in the nation in effective field goal percentage.

Even though his Commodores enter the tournament on a three-game losing streak, coach Mark Byington got No. 10 seed Vanderbilt (20-12) back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2017. But he’s probably seen enough of Duke. Last season, Byington coached James Madison, which the Blue Devils pummeled, 93-55, in an NCAA Tournament second-round game.

Final Four

The East Region lines up with the Midwest Region, which means Duke could face Houston for the second consecutive season in the NCAA Tournament. Seeded No. 1 in the Midwest, the Cougars (30-4) are as defensive-minded as ever and darn good at it. But, last season, Duke upset Houston, 54-51, in the South Regional semifinals at Dallas.

Tennessee (27-7), the Midwest Region’s second seed, is also a top-five team nationally in defensive efficiency along with Houston and Duke. The Blue Devils also have recent NCAA Tournament history with the Vols, having lost 65-52 in a 2023 East Region second-round game in Orlando.

No. 5 seed Clemson (27-6) could also emerge from the Midwest. The Tigers were the only ACC team to beat Duke this season.

Illinois, seeded No. 6, is also a possibility. Though Duke hammered the Illini, 110-67, in New York City last month, Illinois (21-12) is capable of shooting its way to the Final Four.

National championship game

A Duke-Auburn rematch would be welcomed by basketball fans everywhere. Auburn (28-5) would certainly love another chance at the Blue Devils, this time on a neutral court, after losing 84-78 at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Dec. 4.

SEC champion Florida (30-4) looks like a national championship team, too, if it can emerge from the West Region.

Or maybe two coaches when plenty of experience facing Duke in the postseason, Michigan State’s Tom Izzo or Rick Pitino of St. John’s, will get their teams to the season’s final game to face off with Duke’s Jon Scheyer rather than seeing Krzyzewski once again.

The Blue Devils haven’t made it this far since winning the 2015 NCAA championship. That year, everyone wanted to see unbeaten Kentucky battle the Blue Devils. But Wisconsin took out those Wildcats in the national semifinals.

The bracket giveth and the bracket taketh.

This story was originally published March 19, 2025 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Can Duke basketball win it all? Here’s the Blue Devils’ path to NCAA Tournament title."

Steve Wiseman

The News & Observer

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Steve Wiseman was named Raleigh News & Observer and Durham Herald-Sun sports editor in May 2025. He covered Duke athletics, beginning in 2010, prior to his current assignment. In the Associated Press Sports Editors national contest, he placed in the top 10 in beat writing in 2019, 2021 and 2022, breaking news in 2019, event coverage in 2025 and explanatory writing in 2018. Before coming to Durham in 2010, Steve worked for The State (Columbia, SC), Herald-Journal (Spartanburg, S.C.), The Sun Herald (Biloxi, Miss.), Charlotte Observer and Hickory (NC) Daily Record covering beats including the NFL’s Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints, University of South Carolina athletics and the S.C. General Assembly. He’s won numerous state-level press association awards. Steve graduated from Illinois State University in 1989.