A year into pandemic, fragile progress as Mecklenburg records 100,000 total COVID cases

Mecklenburg County reported its first known coronavirus case on March 12, 2020.

Just over a year later, the county has now surpassed a once unthinkable milestone: 100,000 lab-confirmed infections.

Half of those cases came in roughly the last three months alone, following a staggering holiday-induced surge that began in December.

More recently, coronavirus conditions have improved drastically. Hospitalizations, which lag several weeks behind new cases, continue to decline. Over the past week, the number of patients requiring hospital-level care fell to 120 — compared to 240 one month ago and 540 two months ago.

Yet the average COVID-19 positivity rate slightly rose in the past week to 5.1%, county health officials said Friday. The latest data comes after Mecklenburg had managed to drop below 5%.

Earlier this week, Mecklenburg Public Health Director Gibbie Harris said the county’s metrics were beginning to stabilize.

“We’re at one one of the better places we’ve been since July,” Harris said during a news conference Thursday.

“People have been paying close attention to the masking and the social distancing. But as things open up more and we’re getting into spring and people are out and about, we may be starting to see a stabilization in that improvement.”

The cumulative tally since the start of the pandemic hit 100,099 cases on Friday morning, the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services reported. But officials warn the number is a vast undercount, due to limited COVID-19 testing and resources, especially early on in the pandemic.

Local health officials say 903 residents have died of coronavirus-related complications as of Thursday afternoon — with 41.5% of fatalities linked to COVID-19 outbreaks at long-term care facilities, such as nursing homes.

How Mecklenburg reached 100,000 cases

Daily cases numbers — and subsequent hospitalizations and deaths — have swung wildly throughout the pandemic, with surges tied to lax coronavirus behavior during holidays.

During the July 4-induced surge, for example, Mecklenburg was logging more than 350 new cases each day, and it took months to recover from that peak.

In the aftermath of Thanksgiving gatherings, Mecklenburg was adding more than 600 new infections daily, compared to under 300 in mid-November. In mid-January, Mecklenburg’s 7-day average of new coronavirus cases soared beyond 900 but managed to fall below 700 by the end of the month.

Here are some caseload milestones, based on N.C. DHHS data:

▪ March 23, 2020: Crossed 100 cases locally

▪ April 15: 1,000+

▪ June 27: 10,000+

▪ July 30: 20,000+

▪ Oct. 9: 30,000+

▪ Nov. 21: 40,000+

▪ Dec. 12: 50,000+

▪ Dec. 27: 60,000+

▪ Jan. 9: 70,000+

▪ Jan 22: 80,000+

▪ Feb. 7: 90,000+

The true number of infections, particularly fueled by asymptomatic transmission, is murky due to ongoing COVID-19 testing obstacles.

Severely restricted testing capacity at the start of the pandemic meant only the sickest patients could access a COVID-19 test, though availability expanded by spring and summer. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said between last March through May, there may have been 10 times as many cases than those detected through testing.

And in recent weeks, Mecklenburg has seen a significant testing slump, following record testing volumes surrounding Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year’s.

Vaccines working, slowly

As of mid-March, Mecklenburg’s new daily caseload is averaging about 175 new infections. That’s a major decrease since January, but the trajectory may be ticking upward. Last week, the daily average was 150 cases.

Harris said Thursday the spread of more contagious coronavirus variants might threaten this progress, along with spring break activities.

Vaccines can quash more virus spread, and officials have pointed to the steady drop in cases and deaths at nursing homes — where the vast majority of people got both shots months ago — as a hopeful case study for gaining herd immunity.

On Wednesday, Mecklenburg became the second North Carolina county — after Wake County — to surpass 100,000 residents getting full vaccine protection.

Mecklenburg County Public Health has received 64,135 first doses — encompassing the Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines — and administered 39,825 of those as of Wednesday. The county also received 25,725 second doses and administered 21,837.

Mecklenburg officials say 22,619 first doses and 497 second doses were transferred to other healthcare providers in the community, including Atrium Health and Novant Health.

Locally, 15.3% of residents are at least partially vaccinated and 9.4% are fully vaccinated as of late Thursday, according to N.C. DHHS. Put differently, 170,227 residents are at least partially vaccinated and 104,695 are fully vaccinated, though the numbers do not incorporate immunizations in long-term care facilities.

“If we’re looking at needing herd immunity to really move things forward in our community, we’re looking at 70% to 85%,” Harris told county commissioners this week. “We’ve got a ways to go.”

Vaccine info in Mecklenburg County: Schedule online at starmed.care or call Public Health at 980-314-9400 (option 3 for English and option 8 for Spanish. Visit Mecknc.gov/covid-19 to join the county’s waitlist or to apply for home-based vaccination. For other providers, find your spot via the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services’ MySpot.NC.gov.

This story was originally published March 19, 2021 at 12:20 PM.