Analysis: An early victory in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race

Democrats across North Carolina spent the day Thursday praising state Sen. Jeff Jackson for dropping out of the U.S. Senate race and throwing his support behind former N.C. Supreme Court Justice Cheri Beasley as their party’s presumptive nominee.

Jackson’s decision certainly had an element of selflessness to it, but it was more about self-awareness. His gift to Democrats wasn’t so much pulling out of a race he was unlikely to win, but deciding he didn’t want to do damage to another Democrat to give himself a chance. With Beasley ahead in both fundraising and polls, Jackson would have had to run a negative campaign to beat her, and that wasn’t something that fits how he has long campaigned for public office.

That realization brings an obvious benefit for Democrats: the ability to unite early behind one candidate while Republicans are mired in a costly primary brawl between U.S. Rep. Ted Budd and former North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory. By the time Democrats lined up behind Beasley this week, the GOP primary had turned unusually bloody, with the influential conservative political action committee Club for Growth distributing a 12-page, full-color mailer across the state that called McCrory a “fatally flawed general election candidate.”

Jackson’s decision also gives Democrats a five-month head start to frame the race in important ways. With Budd and McCrory largely intent on each other, Democrats can spend time on their own talking points, and they can remind voters of something different riding on this race: history. Beasley would be the first Black U.S. senator to be elected in North Carolina, and she would be only the third Black woman to serve in the Senate. Such milestones are meaningful to the progressive base, and could resonate with other voters who appreciate being a part of progress.

Still, the hill remains steep for Democrats. North Carolina hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since Kay Hagan in 2008, and the Republican base is likely to rally around either Budd, who has the former president’s endorsement, or McCrory, a strong campaigner who has long been adept at courting moderate voters. Republicans also are helped by inflation worries and President Joe Biden’s early struggles, as well as a long history of non-presidential elections favoring the party that’s not in power.

But Democrats also have reasons for encouragement. Beasley is a more exciting candidate for the progressive base than Cal Cunningham in 2020, for example, whose appeal to voters was largely that he wasn’t Thom Tillis. Beasley has raised more money than any candidate in the race, Democrat or Republican. She’s won multiple statewide elections, and only lost re-election as chief justice in 2020 by about 400 votes.

For now, Jackson’s exit gives Democrats a critical head start. With both Budd and McCrory trying to appeal to the pro-Trump base, Democrats can focus their energy on wooing unaffiliated voters and a moderate Republican wing that’s uncomfortable with the direction of the GOP.

The latter illustrates a troublesome Republican reality, especially in purplish states. The GOP is fractured right now and appears increasingly under the grip of a former president who tried to overthrow a legitimate election. Yes, Donald Trump won North Carolina just a year ago, and the turnout he generated helped Republicans dominate N.C. races. But the residue from Jan. 6 could be significant in 2022, including in North Carolina, where the election-denying Madison Cawthorn has become the face of a stronger, more radical wing of the GOP.

Certainly, Republicans will have time to turn their attention to Beasley and Biden, a pairing North Carolinians will hear a lot of come summer. But for now, while Budd and McCrory battle — and while Republicans spar over who they’re going to be — Jackson has given Democrats an early victory, in a race where every advantage will matter.